Lazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lazio. Lazio had 9.1 days of rest, Udinese 9.2 and had to travel 468 km.
Away travel468 kmRest days9.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lazio55%
Draw26%
Udinese19%
Lazio54%
Draw25%
Udinese21%
Lazio53%
Draw27%
Udinese20%
Lazio48%
Draw28%
Udinese24%
Lazio56%
Draw25%
Udinese19%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 12
Team strength
Lazio
Udinese
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
53
AttackIn forecast
22
63
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LazioUdinese
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
0.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
55%
Scored inContext
73%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.85
ShotsContext
10.91
4.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
36%
On target shareContext
32%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.48
59%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.59
OffsidesContext
1.91
12.76
Shots allowedContext
12.88
4.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.42
BlocksContext
3.67
3.16
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
78%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
481
PassesContext
353
416
Accurate passesContext
284
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.94
FoulsContext
13.42
14.52
Fouls sufferedContext
11.18
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
60%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
9.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
37%
On target shareContext
34%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
61%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.80
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.90
BlocksContext
4.60
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
72%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
502
PassesContext
354
442
Accurate passesContext
285
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.30
FoulsContext
13.10
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lazio
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km841 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel468 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lazio |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Apr | 9.2Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 468 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 841 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lazio
Confirmed XI
40E. Motta(G)
3L. Pellegrini
25Oliver Provstgaard
13A. Romagnoli
29M. Lazzari
24K. Taylor
4Patric
26T. Bašić
14T. Noslin
19B. Dia
22M. Cancellieri
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
32J. Ekkelenkamp
10N. Zaniolo
7Idrissa Gueye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lazio
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lazio+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Udinese-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Lazio · Home
1.63points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.13
Udinese · Away
1.44points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-7
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Lazio | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | W 2–0 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A |
| Parma | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Bologna | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| AC Milan | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Torino | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Juventus | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Genoa | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Como | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Pisa | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 46 of 96 · 1.44 per game | 42 of 96 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Lazio wins5 draws2 Udinese wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.544%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 27 Dec 2025Udinese1–1Lazio
- 10 Mar 2025Lazio1–1Udinese
- 24 Aug 2024Udinese2–1Lazio
- 11 Mar 2024Lazio1–2Udinese
- 7 Jan 2024Udinese1–2Lazio
- 21 May 2023Udinese0–1Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lazio | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.91 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.94 | 2.45 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 61% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 24% | 48% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 24% | 48% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 27% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Lazio | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lazio | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 4.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.93 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.26 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 14/29 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 9/29 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 4/29 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.73 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 4.91 | 3.70 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 24/33 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 20/33 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Lazio | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.00 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.80 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.08league 3.70
Red cards0.25league 0.18
Cards 5+25%league 35%
Fouls24.6league 24.8
Penalties0.25league 0.29
Home wins42%league 40%
LazioNo previous matches with this referee.
Udinese1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W21 Feb 25A · Lecce1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lazio32 games · scored 32 · conceded 29
5
4
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
11
4
76-90
Udinese33 games · scored 38 · conceded 43
4
6
0-15
6
6
16-30
7
6
31-45
8
9
46-60
8
7
61-75
5
9
76-90
Lazio9 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
