Lazio vs Verona – 31 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 31 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 19th · 0 pts · 1 played L

4–0Full time

Verona 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio were clear favourites.

Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 25). Lazio usually keep the ball (52% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Lazio had 7.1 days of rest, Verona 6.1 and had to travel 413 km.

Away travel413 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lazio64%

Draw22%

Verona13%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.75

Lazio66%

Draw21%

Verona13%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.85

Lazio64%

Draw22%

Verona13%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.75

Lazio57%

Draw25%

Verona18%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.84

Lazio66%

Draw21%

Verona13%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.85

Over 2.5 50% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

RefereeValerio Crezzini

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 1

Team strength

Lazio

Verona

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

53 AttackIn forecast 15

63 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lazio

Verona

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 0.69

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.40 ShotsContext 8.80

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00

34% On target shareContext 21%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

65% Box shareContext 58%

8% ConversionContext 7%

3.13 OffsidesContext 1.63

10.50 Shots allowedContext 9.20

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.44 BlocksContext 2.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

70% Save rateContext 73%

55% PossessionIn forecast 41%

466 PassesContext 310

401 Accurate passesContext 230

86% Pass accuracyContext 74%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.30 FoulsContext 16.30

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,030 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel413 km375 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Aug	6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	413 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,030 km	375 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Confirmed XI

4-3-3

94I. Provedel(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 34Mario Gila 77A. Marušić

7O. Dele-Bashiru 6N. Rovella 8M. Guendouzi

10M. Zaccagni 11V. Castellanos 22M. Cancellieri

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

23E. Ebosse 15V. Nelsson 5Unai Núñez

12D. Bradarić 8S. Serdar 24A. Bernede 21A. Harroui 70Fallou Cham

9A. Sarr 17Giovane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Verona+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home No home games yet this season.

Verona · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Lazio wins3 draws1 Verona wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 0%

19 Jan 2025Verona0–3Lazio
16 Sep 2024Lazio2–1Verona
27 Apr 2024Lazio1–0Verona
9 Dec 2023Verona1–1Lazio
6 Feb 2023Verona1–1Lazio
11 Sep 2022Lazio2–0Verona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	45%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lazio	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	2.00	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	45%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	—	1.00
Corners conceded	—	5.00
Match total	—	6.00	8.19
Over 8.5	—	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	—	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	—	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	3.81
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Lazio	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	7.44	3.70
Corners conceded	3.22	4.80
Match total	10.66	8.50	8.19
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	3.30	2.40
Opponent cards	3.30	1.40
Match total	6.60	3.80	3.81
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Valerio Crezzini 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 3.72

Red cards0.00league 0.11

Cards 5+100%league 39%

Fouls28.0league 25.4

Penalties0.00league 0.11

Home wins0%league 39%

Lazio

No previous matches with this referee.

Verona

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.