Lazio
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lazio64.4%fair odds 1.55
Draw22.3%fair odds 4.49
Verona13.3%fair odds 7.50
Expected goals1.91 – 0.75total 2.66
Likeliest score1–012.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Verona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lazio ↓ · Verona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lazio goals, columns Verona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–012.9%7.78
- 2–012.8%7.81
- 1–110.5%9.50
- 2–19.6%10.46
- 3–08.2%12.26
- 0–07.5%13.28
- 3–16.1%16.41
- 0–14.7%21.28
- 4–03.9%25.64
- 1–23.7%26.78
Winning margin
19.3%
Lazio by 3+
fair 5.17
20.1%
Lazio by 2
fair 4.98
25.0%
Lazio by 1
fair 4.00
22.3%
Draw
fair 4.49
9.4%
Verona by 1
fair 10.60
3.1%
Verona by 2
fair 32.63
0.8%
Verona by 3+
fair 121.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Lazio goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Verona goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio win | 64.4% | 66.0% | -1.5 pp |
| Draw | 22.3% | 20.6% | +1.7 pp |
| Verona win | 13.3% | 13.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.6% | 56.7% | -7.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.4% | 50.7% | -5.4 pp |
| Expected goals Lazio | 1.91 | 2.11 | -0.20 |
| Expected goals Verona | 0.75 | 0.85 | -0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lazio win64.4%1.55
- Draw22.3%4.49
- Verona win13.3%7.50
- Double chance Lazio or draw86.7%1.15
- Double chance Lazio or Verona77.7%1.29
- Double chance Verona or draw35.6%2.81
- Draw no bet Lazio82.9%1.21
- Draw no bet Verona17.1%5.83
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.574.9%1.33
- Over 2.549.6%2.02
- Over 3.527.7%3.61
- Over 4.513.1%7.63
- Under 1.525.1%3.99
- Under 2.550.4%1.99
- Under 3.572.3%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes45.4%2.20
- No54.6%1.83
- Yes and over 2.534.8%2.87
- Lazio win and yes24.6%4.07
- Draw and yes14.7%6.79
- Verona win and yes6.1%16.44
Team goals
- Lazio over 0.585.2%1.17
- Lazio over 1.557.0%1.76
- Lazio over 2.530.0%3.34
- Verona over 0.552.6%1.90
- Verona over 1.517.2%5.81
- Verona over 2.54.0%24.95
- Lazio clean sheet47.4%2.11
- Verona clean sheet14.8%6.77
- Lazio win to nil39.9%2.51
- Verona win to nil7.2%13.80
Handicap
- Lazio −1.539.4%2.54
- Lazio −2.519.3%5.17
- Verona +1.560.6%1.65
- Verona +2.580.7%1.24
- Verona −1.53.9%25.70
- Lazio +1.596.1%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.9%
1X2 Brier0.578
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right44.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 6 | 43.8% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 51.5% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 63.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.2% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.