LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
LE Havre were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. LE Havre had 21.1 days of rest, Angers 22.9 and had to travel 230 km.
Away travel230 kmRest days21.1 · 22.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
LE Havre42%
Draw27%
Angers31%
LE Havre42%
Draw27%
Angers31%
LE Havre41%
Draw28%
Angers31%
LE Havre35%
Draw27%
Angers38%
LE Havre42%
Draw27%
Angers31%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.63
- Matches 8
Team strength
LE Havre
Angers
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
20
AttackIn forecast
22
22
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreAngers
0.81
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
56%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.19
ShotsContext
8.88
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
32%
On target shareContext
37%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
60%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.15
11.19
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.06
3.57
BlocksContext
3.13
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
63%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
374
PassesContext
396
306
Accurate passesContext
328
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.50
FoulsContext
11.44
12.88
Fouls sufferedContext
10.88
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.40
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
32%
On target shareContext
40%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.90
64%
Box shareContext
54%
6%
ConversionContext
15%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.20
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.10
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
66%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
352
PassesContext
431
287
Accurate passesContext
356
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.00
FoulsContext
12.20
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest22.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel230 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 22.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
50P. Argney(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
15A. Seko
7L. Nego
8Y. Kechta
26S. Ebonog
14R. Ndiaye
10F. Mambimbi
35K. Quetant
45I. Soumaré
Angers
Confirmed XI
16M. Zinga(G)
26F. Hanin
21J. Lefort
25A. Bamba
2C. Arcus
5M. Courcoul
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
11S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Angers+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-2
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.00
Angers · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Nantes | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Toulouse | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Marseille | L 2–6 A | D 2–2 A |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Metz | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | L 0–5 A |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Monaco | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 15 of 48 · 0.94 per game | 22 of 48 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 LE Havre wins1 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 2 Feb 2025Angers1–1LE Havre
- 1 Dec 2024LE Havre0–1Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.81 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.19 | 2.19 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| LE Havre | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 8.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 3/14 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 2.69 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 0% 0/16 | |
| LE Havre | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.40 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 2.80 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.88league 3.69
Red cards0.38league 0.36
Cards 5+13%league 36%
Fouls22.4league 24.2
Penalties0.63league 0.47
Home wins50%league 50%
LE Havre1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Oct 25A · Auxerre1–02
Angers3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W7 Dec 25A · Nice1–01
- L22 Aug 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–10
- L27 Apr 25H · Lille0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre16 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Angers16 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
7
1
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
