LE Havre vs Auxerre – 5 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 28 Sun, Apr 5 · 16:15 Stade Océane, Le Havre

LE Havre 14th · 27 pts · 27 played LLLDL

1–1Full time

Auxerre 16th · 22 pts · 27 played LDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Auxerre. LE Havre had 14 days of rest, Auxerre 14.9 and had to travel 316 km.

Away travel316 kmRest days14 · 14.9Matches / 14d1 · 0

LE Havre36%

Draw30%

Auxerre34%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.12

LE Havre42%

Draw27%

Auxerre31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

LE Havre37%

Draw30%

Auxerre33%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.11

LE Havre30%

Draw29%

Auxerre40%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.26

LE Havre36%

Draw29%

Auxerre34%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.17

Over 2.5 40% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Le Havre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Millot

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 86

Team strength

LE Havre

Auxerre

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

20 AttackIn forecast 39

22 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LE Havre

Auxerre

0.81 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.81

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

52% Scored inContext 44%

26% Clean sheetsContext 26%

10.63 ShotsContext 10.26

3.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

31% On target shareContext 31%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.52

58% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.19 OffsidesContext 2.07

12.22 Shots allowedContext 11.33

4.04 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.41

3.64 BlocksContext 3.13

2.84 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.19

69% Save rateContext 72%

47% PossessionIn forecast 44%

372 PassesContext 368

302 Accurate passesContext 297

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.79

12.78 FoulsContext 12.93

13.48 Fouls sufferedContext 13.93

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.72

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

40% Scored inContext 30%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.70 ShotsContext 9.30

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

26% On target shareContext 28%

5.89 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

53% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.43

14.30 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.90 BlocksContext 4.11

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

77% Save rateContext 80%

48% PossessionIn forecast 43%

366 PassesContext 364

293 Accurate passesContext 288

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.40 FoulsContext 12.20

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

LE Havre

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km356 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Auxerre

Rest14.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel316 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	LE Havre	Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar	14.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	316 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	356 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

LE Havre Confirmed XI

3-4-3

99M. Diaw(G)

4G. Lloris 15A. Seko 93A. Sangante

18Y. Zouaoui 26S. Ebonog 19L. Gourna-Douath 7L. Nego

17S. Boufal 45I. Soumaré 14R. Ndiaye

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Auxerre Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40T. De Percin(G)

14G. Mensah 24B. Okoh 20S. Diomandé 27L. Sy

5K. Danois 42E. Owusu

22F. Oppegård 19D. Namaso 28R. Faivre

10L. Sinayoko

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

LE Havre Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Auxerre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

LE Havre-0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Auxerre+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

LE Havre · Home 1.50points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 5-6-3
Scored: 1.07
Conceded: 0.86

Auxerre · Away 0.54points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-8
Scored: 0.69
Conceded: 1.62

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	LE Havre	Auxerre
Paris FC	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Lyon	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Nantes	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Toulouse	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Strasbourg	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Lens	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Monaco	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 H
Rennes	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 0–3 HD 2–2 A
Angers	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Lille	L 0–1 H	L 3–4 H
Marseille	L 2–6 A	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H
Metz	D 0–0 A	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H
Lorient	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Nice	W 3–1 H	L 1–3 A
Points	24 of 78 · 0.92 per game	22 of 78 · 0.85 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

3 LE Havre wins0 draws0 Auxerre wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

26 Oct 2025Auxerre0–1LE Havre
4 May 2025Auxerre1–2LE Havre
1 Sep 2024LE Havre3–1Auxerre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	LE Havre	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	0.81	0.81
Conceded per game	1.30	1.33
Match goals	2.11	2.15	2.30
Over 1.5	56%	56%
Over 2.5	37%	41%	40%
Over 3.5	19%	22%
Both teams scored	44%	33%	47%
Clean sheets	26%	26%
Failed to score	48%	56%
Games	27	27

	LE Havre	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.80
Conceded per game	1.20	0.90
Match goals	1.90	1.70	2.30
Over 1.5	60%	40%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	40%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	20%	47%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	60%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	LE Havre	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.32	4.67
Corners conceded	4.64	4.41
Match total	8.96	9.08	9.10
Over 8.5	56% 14/25	56% 15/27
Over 9.5	40% 10/25	33% 9/27
Over 10.5	40% 10/25	26% 7/27
Cards
Cards	1.89	2.26
Opponent cards	2.30	2.74
Match total	4.19	5.00	3.99
Over 3.5	67% 18/27	78% 21/27
Over 4.5	33% 9/27	52% 14/27

	LE Havre	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.20
Corners conceded	5.30	4.40
Match total	9.30	8.60	9.10
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.30	2.50
Match total	4.30	4.40	3.99
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Millot France · 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.70

Red cards0.27league 0.28

Cards 5+37%league 37%

Fouls25.4league 23.8

Penalties0.24league 0.37

Home wins43%league 48%

LE Havre4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W29 Oct 25H · Stade Brestois 291–01
L6 Oct 24A · Stade Brestois 290–21
L11 Feb 24H · Rennes0–12
L10 Dec 23A · Strasbourg1–21

Auxerre4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L3 Jun 23H · Lens1–31
W26 Feb 23A · Lorient1–03
W30 Oct 22H · Ajaccio1–02
D26 May 22H · Saint Etienne1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.