LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 23). LE Havre had 7.8 days of rest, Lille 2.9 and had to travel 252 km.
Away travel252 kmRest days7.8 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
LE Havre22%
Draw25%
Lille54%
LE Havre22%
Draw25%
Lille53%
LE Havre22%
Draw25%
Lille54%
LE Havre17%
Draw22%
Lille61%
LE Havre22%
Draw25%
Lille53%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 97
Team strength
LE Havre
Lille
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
20
AttackIn forecast
42
22
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreLille
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
69%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.15
ShotsContext
15.69
3.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.31
32%
On target shareContext
34%
6.54
Shots in the boxContext
11.15
58%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.09
OffsidesContext
1.27
10.85
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.23
3.45
BlocksContext
2.33
2.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.08
62%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
386
PassesContext
488
317
Accurate passesContext
415
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.38
FoulsContext
12.92
12.77
Fouls sufferedContext
12.46
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.90
ShotsContext
15.70
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
26%
On target shareContext
40%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
57%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.17
11.50
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.75
BlocksContext
2.57
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
66%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
393
PassesContext
523
326
Accurate passesContext
451
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.00
FoulsContext
12.00
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km356 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel252 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 252 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 356 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
15A. Seko
45I. Soumaré
14R. Ndiaye
26S. Ebonog
13F. Doucouré
11Godson Kyeremeh
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
32A. Bouaddi
21B. André
11O. Sahraoui
17N. Mukau
27Félix Correia
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lille+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.17
Lille · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nantes | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Toulouse | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Metz | D 0–0 A | W 6–1 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | W 7–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Monaco | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 LE Havre wins0 draws3 Lille wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 8 Feb 2025Lille1–2LE Havre
- 28 Sep 2024LE Havre0–3Lille
- 17 Feb 2024Lille3–0LE Havre
- 1 Oct 2023LE Havre0–2Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 3.38 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 46% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 46% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| LE Havre | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.09 | 6.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 3.62 | |
| Match total | 8.54 | 10.54 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 4.23 | 4.46 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| LE Havre | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 7.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.70 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 97 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.77
Red cards0.26league 0.31
Cards 5+39%league 37%
Fouls24.7league 24.1
Penalties0.43league 0.50
Home wins44%league 50%
LE Havre6 with this referee
Record0-1-5
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L14 Sep 25A · Strasbourg0–12
- L10 May 25H · Marseille1–32
- L13 Apr 25H · Rennes1–52
- L1 Dec 24H · Angers0–12
- L16 Aug 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–43
Lille12 with this referee
Record4-4-4
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.1
Pens for · against4 · 4
Reds3
- W24 Aug 25H · Monaco1–01
- W17 May 25H · Reims2–10
- L25 Jan 25A · Strasbourg1–22
- D14 Dec 24A · Marseille1–13
- D19 May 24H · Nice2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre13 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
5
76-90
Lille13 games · scored 27 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
15
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
