LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
LE Havre were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. LE Havre had 7 days of rest, Lorient 8.9 and had to travel 321 km.
Away travel321 kmRest days7 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
LE Havre43%
Draw27%
Lorient30%
LE Havre43%
Draw27%
Lorient30%
LE Havre42%
Draw28%
Lorient30%
LE Havre36%
Draw28%
Lorient36%
LE Havre44%
Draw27%
Lorient30%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 19
Team strength
LE Havre
Lorient
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
20
AttackIn forecast
28
22
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreLorient
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
75%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.50
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
41%
On target shareContext
28%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
57%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.33
OffsidesContext
3.00
8.75
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
2.25
BlocksContext
4.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
53%
Save rateContext
52%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
389
PassesContext
399
317
Accurate passesContext
340
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.51
15.00
FoulsContext
12.75
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
15.25
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
3.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
90%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
13.80
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
37%
On target shareContext
33%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
56%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.00
BlocksContext
2.89
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
58%
Save rateContext
60%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
388
PassesContext
412
319
Accurate passesContext
344
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.70
FoulsContext
12.00
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,131 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel321 km1,684 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,131 km | 1,684 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
23T. Delaine
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
94A. Touré
15A. Seko
45I. Soumaré
8Y. Kechta
13F. Doucouré
70M. Samatta
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
3M. Talbi
5B. Meïté
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
62A. Avom
11T. Le Bris
29D. Karim
15A. Tosin
9M. Bamba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lorient-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Lorient · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 LE Havre wins1 draws0 Lorient wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 28 Jan 2024Lorient3–3LE Havre
- 3 Sep 2023LE Havre3–0Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.25 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| LE Havre | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.25 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 7.67 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 6.25 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| LE Havre | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.86 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.29 | 8.44 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.90 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.54
Red cards0.21league 0.37
Cards 5+37%league 37%
Fouls27.3league 23.7
Penalties0.42league 0.51
Home wins53%league 66%
LE Havre2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Dec 24H · Strasbourg0–30
- L20 Oct 24H · Lyon0–43
Lorient1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 Aug 25A · Auxerre0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre4 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lorient4 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
6
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
1
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 26
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
8
46-60
5
61-75
1
10
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
