LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre had 7.3 days of rest, Marseille 8.3 and had to travel 798 km.
Away travel798 kmRest days7.3 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
LE Havre32%
Draw25%
Marseille43%
LE Havre28%
Draw27%
Marseille45%
LE Havre30%
Draw25%
Marseille45%
LE Havre25%
Draw24%
Marseille51%
LE Havre32%
Draw25%
Marseille42%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 125
Team strength
LE Havre
Marseille
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
20
AttackIn forecast
48
22
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreMarseille
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.84
1.34
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
59%
Scored inContext
75%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.56
ShotsContext
14.44
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.44
33%
On target shareContext
38%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.13
59%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.27
OffsidesContext
1.55
12.47
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.63
BlocksContext
2.52
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
71%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
370
PassesContext
540
301
Accurate passesContext
477
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.13
FoulsContext
12.13
13.72
Fouls sufferedContext
10.16
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
16.20
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
31%
On target shareContext
33%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
64%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.60
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.20
BlocksContext
1.90
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
78%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
374
PassesContext
501
307
Accurate passesContext
434
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.60
FoulsContext
12.00
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km503 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel798 km1,391 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May | 8.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 798 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 503 km | 1,391 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
15A. Seko
93A. Sangante
14R. Ndiaye
19L. Gourna-Douath
45I. Soumaré
17S. Boufal
13F. Doucouré
25M. Samatta
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
23P. Højbjerg
6Tochukwu Nnadi
14Igor Paixão
27Q. Timber
10M. Greenwood
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+1.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Marseille-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-8-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.06
Marseille · Away
1.19points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-9
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | D 4–4 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Nice | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 5–1 A |
| Auxerre | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Rennes | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 32 of 93 · 1.03 per game | 50 of 93 · 1.61 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 LE Havre wins0 draws5 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.80
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 18 Oct 2025Marseille6–2LE Havre
- 10 May 2025LE Havre1–3Marseille
- 5 Jan 2025Marseille5–1LE Havre
- 19 May 2024LE Havre1–2Marseille
- 8 Oct 2023Marseille3–0LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 1.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.34 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.28 | 3.22 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 34% | 63% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| LE Havre | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 5.03 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 8.63 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 12/30 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 11/30 | 23% 7/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 4.07 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 22/32 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 11/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| LE Havre | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.00 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.14league 3.68
Red cards0.21league 0.27
Cards 5+47%league 36%
Fouls24.5league 23.6
Penalties0.42league 0.37
Home wins54%league 47%
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Mar 26A · Stade Brestois 290–21
- W6 Apr 25A · Montpellier2–01
- L10 May 24A · Nice0–10
- D17 Sep 23A · Lyon0–02
Marseille16 with this referee
Record5-2-9
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds2
- L22 Mar 26H · Lille1–21
- W24 Jan 26H · Lens3–10
- W1 Nov 25A · Auxerre1–05
- L12 Apr 25A · Monaco0–31
- W22 Sep 24A · Lyon3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre32 games · scored 30 · conceded 43
4
6
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
11
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
6
61-75
6
9
76-90
Marseille32 games · scored 59 · conceded 44
7
5
0-15
10
6
16-30
7
3
31-45
8
10
46-60
10
6
61-75
17
14
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
7
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
