LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 23). Absences weigh more on LE Havre. LE Havre had 6.1 days of rest, Monaco 8 and had to travel 849 km.
Away travel849 kmRest days6.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
LE Havre29%
Draw26%
Monaco45%
LE Havre30%
Draw27%
Monaco44%
LE Havre29%
Draw27%
Monaco44%
LE Havre23%
Draw25%
Monaco53%
LE Havre29%
Draw26%
Monaco45%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 60
Team strength
LE Havre
Monaco
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
20
AttackIn forecast
45
22
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreMonaco
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.56
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
61%
Scored inContext
78%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
10.94
ShotsContext
12.11
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.94
35%
On target shareContext
33%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.24
59%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.15
11.39
Shots allowedContext
13.17
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.69
BlocksContext
3.72
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
64%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
373
PassesContext
473
304
Accurate passesContext
400
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.50
FoulsContext
12.72
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.72
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.22
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
-0.48
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
61%
Box shareContext
68%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
2.13
OffsidesContext
3.83
13.50
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
4.60
BlocksContext
4.30
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
74%
Save rateContext
60%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
365
PassesContext
431
296
Accurate passesContext
362
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.70
FoulsContext
12.10
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.40
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km403 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel849 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 849 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 403 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
77Lionel M'Pasi(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
15A. Seko
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
14R. Ndiaye
19L. Gourna-Douath
26S. Ebonog
10F. Mambimbi
33K. Quetant
25M. Samatta
Monaco
Confirmed XI
16P. Köhn(G)
12Caio Henrique
25W. Faes
5J. Kehrer
20K. Ouattara
6D. Zakaria
15M. Camara
10A. Golovin
11M. Akliouche
9F. Balogun
19G. Ilenikhena
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Monaco+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.00
Monaco · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | LE Havre | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Angers | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lille | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | D 1–1 H | W 5–3 A |
| Toulouse | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Marseille | L 2–6 A | L 0–1 A |
| Metz | D 0–0 A | W 5–2 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Nice | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 19 of 51 · 1.12 per game | 20 of 51 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 LE Havre wins3 draws2 Monaco wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 16 Aug 2025Monaco3–1LE Havre
- 26 Apr 2025LE Havre1–1Monaco
- 22 Sep 2024Monaco3–1LE Havre
- 4 Feb 2024Monaco1–1LE Havre
- 11 Nov 2023LE Havre0–0Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.22 | 3.39 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 61% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| LE Havre | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.40 | 3.10 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 8.50 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 9/16 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 5/16 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 5/16 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 4.45 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 13/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 6/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| LE Havre | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 8.70 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.00 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.62
Red cards0.30league 0.33
Cards 5+30%league 35%
Fouls26.3league 24.2
Penalties0.33league 0.44
Home wins38%league 50%
LE Havre5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L14 Dec 25A · Lyon0–14
- W1 Sep 24H · Auxerre3–11
- L21 Apr 24H · Metz0–12
- L17 Mar 24A · Clermont Foot1–25
- W5 Nov 23A · Toulouse2–12
Monaco8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D7 Mar 25A · Toulouse1–13
- D10 Jan 25A · Nantes2–20
- W28 Sep 24H · Montpellier2–14
- D17 Sep 23A · Lorient2–22
- L30 Apr 23H · Montpellier0–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre18 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Monaco18 games · scored 28 · conceded 33
3
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
6
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
11
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
1
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
