LE Havre vs Nantes – 8 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 8 · 18:00 Stade Océane, Le Havre

LE Havre 12th · 13 pts · 11 played DLWWD

1–1Full time

Nantes 15th · 9 pts · 11 played DLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

LE Havre were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Nantes. LE Havre had 6.1 days of rest, Nantes 6.1 and had to travel 281 km.

Away travel281 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

LE Havre46%

Draw27%

Nantes27%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.11

LE Havre45%

Draw27%

Nantes28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

LE Havre45%

Draw27%

Nantes28%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.12

LE Havre39%

Draw28%

Nantes33%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.24

LE Havre47%

Draw26%

Nantes27%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.15

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Le Havre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 48

Team strength

LE Havre

Nantes

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

20 AttackIn forecast 24

22 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LE Havre

Nantes

1.09 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.91

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 0.78

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

73% Scored inContext 45%

36% Clean sheetsContext 18%

10.73 ShotsContext 10.18

3.45 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

32% On target shareContext 25%

6.09 Shots in the boxContext 5.82

56% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.78 OffsidesContext 1.43

9.73 Shots allowedContext 16.00

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.18

3.11 BlocksContext 5.22

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.73

61% Save rateContext 72%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

386 PassesContext 360

318 Accurate passesContext 290

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.76

13.82 FoulsContext 10.91

13.18 Fouls sufferedContext 12.27

1.82 Yellow cardsContext 1.64

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

70% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.20 ShotsContext 10.70

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

30% On target shareContext 26%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

57% Box shareContext 57%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.43

9.40 Shots allowedContext 15.80

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

2.88 BlocksContext 5.00

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

63% Save rateContext 72%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

401 PassesContext 366

333 Accurate passesContext 297

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.80 FoulsContext 11.40

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

LE Havre

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,958 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel281 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	LE Havre	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	281 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,958 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

LE Havre Confirmed XI

4-1-3-2

99M. Diaw(G)

18Y. Zouaoui 4G. Lloris 93A. Sangante 7L. Nego

15A. Seko

8Y. Kechta 14R. Ndiaye 94A. Touré

45I. Soumaré 10F. Mambimbi

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30P. Carlgren(G)

66L. Leroux 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 98K. Amian

80J. Mwanga 5H. Kwon 17D. Assoumani

10M. Abline 19Y. El-Arabi 11B. Guirassy

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

LE Havre Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

LE Havre+1.8 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Nantes-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

LE Havre · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.20

Nantes · Away 1.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	LE Havre	Nantes
Toulouse	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Rennes	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 H
Metz	D 0–0 A	L 0–2 H
Strasbourg	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Nice	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 A
Monaco	L 1–3 A	L 3–5 H
Points	12 of 24 · 1.50 per game	6 of 24 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 LE Havre wins1 draws1 Nantes wins

Goals per game1.25 – 0.75 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 50%

30 Mar 2025LE Havre3–2Nantes
24 Nov 2024Nantes0–2LE Havre
14 Apr 2024LE Havre0–1Nantes
26 Nov 2023Nantes0–0LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	LE Havre	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.09	0.91
Conceded per game	1.45	1.55
Match goals	2.55	2.45	2.64
Over 1.5	55%	55%
Over 2.5	45%	36%	49%
Over 3.5	36%	27%
Both teams scored	55%	36%	53%
Clean sheets	36%	18%
Failed to score	27%	55%
Games	11	11

	LE Havre	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	1.60
Match goals	2.40	2.60	2.64
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	LE Havre	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	3.64
Corners conceded	4.56	6.55
Match total	8.23	10.19	9.49
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	73% 8/11
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	64% 7/11
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	55% 6/11
Cards
Cards	1.91	1.64
Opponent cards	2.27	2.45
Match total	4.18	4.09	4.15
Over 3.5	82% 9/11	64% 7/11
Over 4.5	18% 2/11	36% 4/11

	LE Havre	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.88	3.80
Corners conceded	4.50	6.50
Match total	8.38	10.30	9.49
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	2.50	2.60
Match total	4.50	4.30	4.15
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 3.81

Red cards0.38league 0.30

Cards 5+40%league 38%

Fouls26.3league 24.2

Penalties0.38league 0.48

Home wins54%league 51%

LE Havre3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L26 Jan 25H · Stade Brestois 290–12
W10 Mar 24H · Toulouse1–02
W3 Sep 23H · Lorient3–00

Nantes3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

L19 May 24A · Monaco0–42
L14 Jan 24H · Clermont Foot1–22
W23 Oct 21H · Clermont Foot2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.