LE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 19). LE Havre had 7 days of rest, Nice 7.9 and had to travel 844 km.
Away travel844 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
LE Havre25%
Draw26%
Nice49%
LE Havre25%
Draw26%
Nice49%
LE Havre25%
Draw26%
Nice49%
LE Havre20%
Draw24%
Nice56%
LE Havre25%
Draw26%
Nice49%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Havre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 90
Team strength
LE Havre
Nice
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
20
AttackIn forecast
26
22
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LE HavreNice
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
56%
Box shareContext
38%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
9.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.00
BlocksContext
2.00
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
33%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
382
PassesContext
453
303
Accurate passesContext
393
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.58
Team ratingContext
7.06
15.50
FoulsContext
11.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
13.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
35%
On target shareContext
30%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
58%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.38
BlocksContext
4.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
62%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
391
PassesContext
427
321
Accurate passesContext
360
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.10
FoulsContext
11.20
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
LE Havre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nice
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel844 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| LE Havre |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 844 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
15A. Seko
45I. Soumaré
14R. Ndiaye
8Y. Kechta
13F. Doucouré
70M. Samatta
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
26M. Bard
99S. Abdul Samed
6H. Boudaoui
20T. Louchet
7J. Boga
21I. Jansson
90Kevin Carlos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- LE Havre+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nice+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
LE Havre · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Nice · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 LE Havre wins0 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 16 Feb 2025LE Havre1–3Nice
- 7 Dec 2024Nice2–1LE Havre
- 10 May 2024Nice1–0LE Havre
- 16 Dec 2023LE Havre3–1Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| LE Havre | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| LE Havre | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| LE Havre | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 10.50 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 5.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| LE Havre | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 9.25 | 10.05 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.60 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.35
Red cards0.24league 0.26
Cards 5+31%league 35%
Fouls24.2league 23.2
Penalties0.37league 0.48
Home wins36%league 61%
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W17 May 25A · Strasbourg3–20
- W24 Nov 24A · Nantes2–01
- W4 May 24H · Strasbourg3–13
- D4 Feb 24A · Monaco1–12
Nice11 with this referee
Record6-1-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- L29 Mar 25A · Monaco1–25
- W1 Mar 25A · Saint Etienne3–11
- W3 Jan 25H · Rennes3–24
- D6 Oct 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–11
- W7 Oct 23A · Metz1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
LE Havre2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
76-90
Nice2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
2
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
