Le Mans
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Le Mans had 7.9 days of rest, Lens 2.8 and had to travel 331 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel331 kmRest days7.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Le Mans21%
Draw20%
Lens59%
Le Mans26%
Draw25%
Lens49%
Le Mans22%
Draw20%
Lens58%
Le Mans16%
Draw17%
Lens67%
Le Mans22%
Draw20%
Lens58%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Mans)
Warm
29°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 27%
RefereeHakim Ben el Hadj
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 58
Team strength
Le Mans
Lens
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
27
AttackIn forecast
63
21
DefenceIn forecast
53
28
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Le MansLens
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
3.65
2.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-1.65
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.33
ShotsContext
15.67
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
46%
On target shareContext
47%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
51%
Box shareContext
72%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.67
Shots allowedContext
11.33
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
59%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
362
PassesContext
488
276
Accurate passesContext
426
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.33
FoulsContext
11.67
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
2.42
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
100%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.33
ShotsContext
20.60
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
46%
On target shareContext
35%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.40
51%
Box shareContext
66%
18%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.22
18.67
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
59%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
362
PassesContext
477
276
Accurate passesContext
406
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.33
FoulsContext
10.80
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Le Mans
DLD
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,732 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 28 · 2 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
Lens
WLLW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel331 km1,648 km in 14d
Schedule load19%Low
Form 47 · 6 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Le Mans |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 19 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 331 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,732 km | 1,648 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Le Mans
Confirmed XI
1E. Hatfout(G)
5H. Voyer
17S. Yohou
15N. Boissé
29Lucas Bretelle
22L. Calodat
10J. Vercruysse
11A. Bourabaa
26R. Bamba
25D. Guèye
14L. Mafouta
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
14M. Udol
32Kyllian Antonio
24J. Gradit
22M. Skóraś
5A. Bulatović
27M. Cuisance
2R. Aguilar
10F. Thauvin
19A. Sima
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Le Mans
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Le Mans-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Lens+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Le Mans · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lens · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Le Mans | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.67 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Le Mans | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Le Mans | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.67 | 2.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Le Mans | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 7.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 14.01 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Hadj 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 2.79
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+31%league 15%
Fouls25.2league 23.3
Penalties0.17league 0.35
Home wins47%league 29%
Le MansNo previous matches with this referee.
Lens6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L5 Jan 25H · Toulouse0–16
- L20 Dec 23A · Nice0–22
- W24 Sep 23H · Toulouse2–12
- W12 Nov 22H · Clermont Foot2–11
- W15 Oct 22H · Montpellier1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Le Mans3 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lens3 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Le Mans3 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
