Le Mans
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Le Mans20.6%fair odds 4.85
Draw20.6%fair odds 4.85
Lens58.7%fair odds 1.70
Expected goals1.29 – 2.26total 3.55
Likeliest score1–29.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Le Mans ↓ · Lens → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Le Mans goals, columns Lens goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.5%10.58
- 1–18.8%11.36
- 0–27.3%13.69
- 1–37.1%14.04
- 2–26.1%16.35
- 0–16.0%16.61
- 0–35.5%18.16
- 2–15.4%18.48
- 2–34.6%21.69
- 1–44.0%24.83
Winning margin
2.8%
Le Mans by 3+
fair 35.65
5.8%
Le Mans by 2
fair 17.33
12.1%
Le Mans by 1
fair 8.30
20.6%
Draw
fair 4.85
21.4%
Lens by 1
fair 4.68
17.6%
Lens by 2
fair 5.68
19.8%
Lens by 3+
fair 5.06
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
19%2
21%3
19%4
28%5+
Le Mans goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Lens goals
10%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans win | 20.6% | 21.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 20.6% | 20.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Lens win | 58.7% | 58.0% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 68.9% | 69.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 65.5% | 66.2% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Le Mans | 1.29 | 1.32 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Lens | 2.26 | 2.26 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Le Mans win20.6%4.85
- Draw20.6%4.85
- Lens win58.7%1.70
- Double chance Le Mans or draw41.3%2.42
- Double chance Le Mans or Lens79.4%1.26
- Double chance Lens or draw79.4%1.26
- Draw no bet Le Mans26.0%3.85
- Draw no bet Lens74.0%1.35
Goals
- Over 0.596.7%1.03
- Over 1.587.4%1.14
- Over 2.568.9%1.45
- Over 3.547.5%2.10
- Over 4.528.5%3.51
- Under 1.512.6%7.95
- Under 2.531.1%3.22
- Under 3.552.5%1.91
Both teams to score
- Yes65.5%1.53
- No34.5%2.90
- Yes and over 2.556.7%1.77
- Le Mans win and yes13.5%7.41
- Draw and yes17.3%5.77
- Lens win and yes34.6%2.89
Team goals
- Le Mans over 0.572.6%1.38
- Le Mans over 1.537.1%2.70
- Le Mans over 2.514.2%7.07
- Lens over 0.589.6%1.12
- Lens over 1.566.0%1.52
- Lens over 2.539.4%2.54
- Le Mans clean sheet10.4%9.59
- Lens clean sheet27.4%3.65
- Le Mans win to nil7.1%14.04
- Lens win to nil24.1%4.15
Handicap
- Le Mans −1.58.6%11.66
- Le Mans −2.52.8%35.65
- Lens +1.591.4%1.09
- Lens +2.597.2%1.03
- Lens −1.537.4%2.68
- Le Mans +1.562.6%1.60
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored34
Favourite won47.1%
Avg chance given to result36.3%
1X2 Brier0.674
Over 2.5 called right55.9%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 45.8% | 58.8% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 55.7% | 20.0% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.9% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 25 of 34 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.7033 | 0.6924 |
| Avg chance given to result | 35.2% | 35.0% |
| Favourite won | 44.0% | 40.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 25 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 34 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.