Le Mans
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Le Mans had 6.1 days of rest, Lorient 7 and had to travel 268 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel268 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Le Mans41%
Draw25%
Lorient34%
Le Mans41%
Draw26%
Lorient33%
Le Mans41%
Draw25%
Lorient34%
Le Mans33%
Draw25%
Lorient42%
Le Mans41%
Draw25%
Lorient34%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Le Mans)
22°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereeGeoffrey Kubler
- Cards per match 2.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Le Mans
Lorient
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
27
AttackIn forecast
28
21
DefenceIn forecast
45
25
Form indexContext
35
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Le MansLorient
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
2.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
100%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.75
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
43%
On target shareContext
33%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
67%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
18.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
4.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
82%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
391
PassesContext
498
308
Accurate passesContext
424
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.25
FoulsContext
7.75
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
100%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.90
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
43%
On target shareContext
37%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
61%
Box shareContext
61%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.75
18.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.00
BlocksContext
3.56
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
61%
Save rateContext
77%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
391
PassesContext
432
308
Accurate passesContext
369
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.25
FoulsContext
8.50
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Le Mans
DLDD
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,452 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 3 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Le Mans |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 268 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,452 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Le Mans
Confirmed XI
98N. Kocik(G)
5H. Voyer
17S. Yohou
19D. Sidibé
29Lucas Bretelle
76Y. Larouci
10J. Vercruysse
11A. Bourabaa
26R. Bamba
14L. Mafouta
13M. Diallo
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
32N. Adjei
3M. Talbi
20D. Sylla
43Arsène Kouassi
62A. Avom
8Noah Cadiou
77P. Katseris
17J. Makengo
33Gabin Bernardeau
18I. Baldé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Le Mans
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Le Mans-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lorient+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Le Mans · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lorient · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Le Mans | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Le Mans | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Le Mans | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 2.70 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Le Mans | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.67 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 1.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Le Mans | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.67 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 2.70 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Geoffrey Kubler 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.00league 2.89
Red cards0.00league 0.11
Cards 5+0%league 18%
Fouls24.0league 23.4
Penalties0.00league 0.32
Home wins0%league 32%
Le MansNo previous matches with this referee.
LorientNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Le Mans4 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lorient4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Le Mans4 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
