Le Mans
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Le Mans40.1%fair odds 2.49
Draw26.2%fair odds 3.81
Lorient33.6%fair odds 2.97
Expected goals1.49 – 1.35total 2.84
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Le Mans ↓ · Lorient → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Le Mans goals, columns Lorient goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.08
- 2–18.8%11.40
- 1–08.1%12.35
- 1–27.9%12.63
- 0–17.2%13.80
- 2–06.5%15.37
- 0–06.5%15.48
- 2–25.9%16.92
- 0–25.3%18.86
- 3–14.4%22.92
Winning margin
7.7%
Le Mans by 3+
fair 13.04
12.1%
Le Mans by 2
fair 8.25
20.3%
Le Mans by 1
fair 4.91
26.2%
Draw
fair 3.81
18.3%
Lorient by 1
fair 5.46
9.9%
Lorient by 2
fair 10.12
5.4%
Lorient by 3+
fair 18.46
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Le Mans goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Lorient goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans win | 40.1% | 40.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.2% | 25.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Lorient win | 33.6% | 33.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 55.7% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 59.3% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Le Mans | 1.49 | 1.53 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Lorient | 1.35 | 1.38 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Le Mans win40.1%2.49
- Draw26.2%3.81
- Lorient win33.6%2.97
- Double chance Le Mans or draw66.4%1.51
- Double chance Le Mans or Lorient73.8%1.36
- Double chance Lorient or draw59.9%1.67
- Draw no bet Le Mans54.4%1.84
- Draw no bet Lorient45.6%2.19
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.0%1.85
- Over 3.531.7%3.15
- Over 4.515.9%6.30
- Under 1.521.8%4.59
- Under 2.546.0%2.17
- Under 3.568.3%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.72
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
- Le Mans win and yes20.6%4.85
- Draw and yes19.8%5.06
- Lorient win and yes17.6%5.68
Team goals
- Le Mans over 0.577.5%1.29
- Le Mans over 1.544.0%2.27
- Le Mans over 2.518.9%5.28
- Lorient over 0.574.0%1.35
- Lorient over 1.539.0%2.56
- Lorient over 2.515.4%6.49
- Le Mans clean sheet26.0%3.85
- Lorient clean sheet22.5%4.45
- Le Mans win to nil19.5%5.12
- Lorient win to nil16.0%6.25
Handicap
- Le Mans −1.519.8%5.05
- Le Mans −2.57.7%13.04
- Lorient +1.580.2%1.25
- Lorient +2.592.3%1.08
- Lorient −1.515.3%6.54
- Le Mans +1.584.7%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored38
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result37.0%
1X2 Brier0.662
Over 2.5 called right57.9%
BTTS called right57.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 45.4% | 63.2% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 56.3% | 16.7% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 66.2% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.9% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 29 of 38 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6827 | 0.6617 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.2% | 36.8% |
| Favourite won | 48.3% | 44.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 29 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Paris FC 2–1 Strasbourg42·24·34
- ✓Monaco 2–1 Lens42·24·34
- ✓Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain15·18·67
- ✗Le Mans 2–2 Lens21·20·59
- ✓Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes75·16·9
- ✗Paris FC 0–0 Lyon37·25·38
- ✗LE Havre 0–0 Angers45·25·30
- ✓Auxerre 1–0 Nice46·24·30
- ✗Lorient 2–2 Toulouse46·25·29
- ✗Strasbourg 1–1 Monaco38·24·38
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 38 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.