Lecce vs Genoa – 24 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 19:45 Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce

Lecce 17th · 35 pts · 37 played DDWLW

1–0Full time

Genoa 15th · 41 pts · 37 played WLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genoa. Lecce had 7 days of rest, Genoa 7.4 and had to travel 881 km.

Away travel881 kmRest days7 · 7.4Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lecce34%

Draw30%

Genoa36%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.15

Lecce37%

Draw27%

Genoa36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Lecce34%

Draw30%

Genoa36%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.15

Lecce28%

Draw30%

Genoa43%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.29

Lecce35%

Draw28%

Genoa37%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.28

Over 2.5 39% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lecce)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 84

Team strength

Lecce

Genoa

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

36 AttackIn forecast 23

30 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lecce

Genoa

0.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

1.35 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

49% Scored inContext 62%

24% Clean sheetsContext 24%

9.57 ShotsContext 11.16

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.76

25% On target shareContext 34%

5.64 Shots in the boxContext 6.94

57% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.68 OffsidesContext 1.74

12.51 Shots allowedContext 12.62

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.46

3.47 BlocksContext 4.32

3.09 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.28

68% Save rateContext 69%

42% PossessionIn forecast 48%

317 PassesContext 376

238 Accurate passesContext 304

75% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.46 FoulsContext 12.27

14.03 Fouls sufferedContext 14.73

1.76 Yellow cardsContext 1.68

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

50% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.50 ShotsContext 11.30

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

28% On target shareContext 29%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

66% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.29

11.60 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.22 BlocksContext 3.10

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

68% Save rateContext 72%

39% PossessionIn forecast 50%

282 PassesContext 382

206 Accurate passesContext 308

73% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.79

13.10 FoulsContext 10.00

15.20 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lecce

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,567 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genoa

Rest7.4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel881 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lecce	Genoa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May	7.4Serie A 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	881 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,567 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	90.9	90

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lecce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 5J. Siebert 17Danilo Veiga

79Oumar Ngom 20Y. Ramadani

19L. Banda 29L. Coulibaly 50S. Pierotti

99W. Cheddira

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-5-1-1

1N. Leali(G)

13N. Zätterström 34S. Otoa 27A. Marcandalli

3Aarón Martín 73P. Masini 4Alexsandro Amorim 32M. Frendrup 20S. Sabelli

77M. Ellertsson

29L. Colombo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lecce Absences are shown before kick-off

Genoa Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lecce+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Genoa+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lecce · Home 0.94points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-9
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Genoa · Away 1.06points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 4-7-7
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Lecce	Genoa
Sassuolo	W 3–2 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Juventus	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Pisa	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Verona	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Fiorentina	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H
Bologna	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	W 3–2 HL 1–2 A
Atalanta	L 0–3 HL 1–4 A	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H
AS Roma	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Napoli	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	L 2–3 HL 1–2 A
Cremonese	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Como	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Inter	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H
Cagliari	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	W 3–0 HD 3–3 A
Udinese	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Torino	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	L 2–3 AL 0–3 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Parma	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Points	34 of 108 · 0.94 per game	40 of 108 · 1.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Lecce wins2 draws2 Genoa wins

Goals per game0.60 – 0.80 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 40%

23 Aug 2025Genoa0–0Lecce
14 Mar 2025Genoa2–1Lecce
5 Jan 2025Lecce0–0Genoa
28 Jan 2024Genoa2–1Lecce
22 Sep 2023Lecce1–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lecce	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.73	1.11
Conceded per game	1.35	1.35
Match goals	2.08	2.46	2.25
Over 1.5	62%	78%
Over 2.5	38%	54%	39%
Over 3.5	14%	16%
Both teams scored	38%	54%	46%
Clean sheets	24%	24%
Failed to score	51%	38%
Games	37	37

	Lecce	Genoa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.10
Match goals	2.30	2.00	2.25
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	39%
Over 3.5	10%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	46%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lecce	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.19	3.45
Corners conceded	5.36	5.18
Match total	9.55	8.63	8.64
Over 8.5	67% 24/36	45% 15/33
Over 9.5	56% 20/36	33% 11/33
Over 10.5	39% 14/36	15% 5/33
Cards
Cards	1.81	1.76
Opponent cards	1.59	2.59
Match total	3.40	4.35	3.85
Over 3.5	46% 17/37	76% 28/37
Over 4.5	30% 11/37	43% 16/37

	Lecce	Genoa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.80
Corners conceded	5.20	3.90
Match total	9.20	7.70	8.64
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.90
Match total	3.80	4.10	3.85
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.26league 3.67

Red cards0.19league 0.19

Cards 5+26%league 34%

Fouls24.5league 24.6

Penalties0.21league 0.27

Home wins26%league 39%

Lecce10 with this referee

Record6-1-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 1

W1 May 26A · Pisa2–12
W4 Oct 25A · Parma1–00
L8 Mar 25H · AC Milan2–32
W21 Apr 24A · Sassuolo3–00
L25 Feb 24H · Inter0–41

Genoa7 with this referee

Record1-4-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L14 Dec 25H · Inter1–21
W27 Jan 25H · Monza2–00
D19 Oct 24H · Bologna2–22
D29 Dec 23H · Inter1–12
D22 Jan 22H · Udinese0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.