Lens vs Auxerre – 17 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 18 Sat, Jan 17 · 16:00 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 2nd · 40 pts · 17 played WWWWW

1–0Full time

Auxerre 17th · 12 pts · 17 played DDWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were clear favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 22). Lens had 14.8 days of rest, Auxerre 13 and had to travel 298 km.

Away travel298 kmRest days14.8 · 13Matches / 14d0 · 1

Lens68%

Draw20%

Auxerre12%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.80

Lens68%

Draw20%

Auxerre12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Lens68%

Draw20%

Auxerre12%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.80

Lens61%

Draw23%

Auxerre16%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.89

Lens68%

Draw20%

Auxerre12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Over 2.5 57% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 77

Team strength

Lens

Auxerre

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

63 AttackIn forecast 39

53 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

Auxerre

1.82 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.82

0.76 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.59

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

76% Scored inContext 53%

35% Clean sheetsContext 18%

13.71 ShotsContext 10.82

5.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.53

38% On target shareContext 33%

10.06 Shots in the boxContext 6.69

73% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.63

11.88 Shots allowedContext 10.65

3.59 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

4.19 BlocksContext 2.50

2.76 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

77% Save rateContext 67%

49% PossessionIn forecast 44%

446 PassesContext 370

378 Accurate passesContext 302

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.71

13.06 FoulsContext 13.35

12.06 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.82 Yellow cardsContext 2.12

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.18

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

90% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.60 ShotsContext 10.70

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

42% On target shareContext 36%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.89

74% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 8%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.83

10.40 Shots allowedContext 10.30

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.33 BlocksContext 2.00

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

78% Save rateContext 62%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

485 PassesContext 373

418 Accurate passesContext 309

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.67

13.10 FoulsContext 14.10

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Auxerre

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel298 km1,203 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Jan	13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	298 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,203 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 6S. Baidoo 25P. Ganiou

14M. Udol 5A. Bulatović 28A. Thomasson 23S. Abdulhamid

22W. Saïd 10F. Thauvin

38R. Fofana

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Auxerre Confirmed XI

5-3-2

16D. Léon(G)

22F. Oppegård 92C. Akpa 20S. Diomandé 29M. Senaya 27L. Sy

5K. Danois 17O. El Azzouzi 8N. Ahamada

19D. Namaso 10L. Sinayoko

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Auxerre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Auxerre+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 2.63points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 7-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.50

Auxerre · Away 0.25points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-6
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lens	Auxerre
Toulouse	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 H
Nice	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 A
Nantes	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Angers	W 2–1 A	L 0–2 A
Strasbourg	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 A
Monaco	W 4–1 A	L 1–2 H
Lorient	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 H
Metz	L 0–2 A	W 3–1 H
Marseille	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 H
Paris FC	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Rennes	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Lille	W 3–0 H	L 3–4 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–1 H	L 0–2 A
LE Havre	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 H
Lyon	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 H
Points	37 of 48 · 2.31 per game	12 of 48 · 0.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Lens wins1 draws1 Auxerre wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.60 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

4 Oct 2025Auxerre1–2Lens
27 Apr 2025Lens0–4Auxerre
14 Dec 2024Auxerre2–2Lens
3 Jun 2023Auxerre1–3Lens
14 Jan 2023Lens1–0Auxerre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.82	0.82
Conceded per game	0.76	1.59
Match goals	2.59	2.41	2.97
Over 1.5	82%	65%
Over 2.5	65%	41%	57%
Over 3.5	12%	24%
Both teams scored	47%	41%	49%
Clean sheets	35%	18%
Failed to score	24%	47%
Games	17	17

	Lens	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	0.90
Conceded per game	0.70	1.70
Match goals	2.80	2.60	2.97
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	6.44	4.94
Corners conceded	4.19	4.41
Match total	10.63	9.35	9.33
Over 8.5	69% 11/16	47% 8/17
Over 9.5	63% 10/16	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	50% 8/16	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.47
Opponent cards	2.41	2.88
Match total	4.41	5.35	4.00
Over 3.5	71% 12/17	76% 13/17
Over 4.5	47% 8/17	47% 8/17

	Lens	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	5.20
Corners conceded	3.50	4.50
Match total	9.90	9.70	9.33
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.40
Match total	3.70	4.60	4.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 3.63

Red cards0.26league 0.34

Cards 5+36%league 35%

Fouls24.8league 24.0

Penalties0.40league 0.46

Home wins39%league 50%

Lens9 with this referee

Record4-5-0 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

W8 Nov 25A · Monaco4–12
D28 Sep 25A · Rennes0–03
D10 May 25A · Toulouse1–15
W31 Jan 25A · Montpellier2–03
D15 Sep 24H · Lyon0–00

Auxerre3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D14 Feb 25A · Stade Brestois 292–22
W9 Apr 23A · Ajaccio3–03
D3 Mar 23A · Nice1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.