Lens vs Lille – 20 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 20:05 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 8th · 6 pts · 4 played LWWL

3–0Full time

Lille 3rd · 10 pts · 4 played DWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were slight favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 45). Lens had 6.2 days of rest, Lille 6.3 and had to travel 31 km.

Away travel31 kmRest days6.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lens32%

Draw27%

Lille41%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.48

Lens32%

Draw27%

Lille41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.44

Lens32%

Draw27%

Lille42%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.48

Lens26%

Draw26%

Lille49%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.66

Lens33%

Draw27%

Lille40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.44

Over 2.5 52% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceEric Wattellier

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 82

Team strength

Lens

Lille

45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 65

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

63 AttackIn forecast 42

53 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

Lille

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.25

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 2.19

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.55 Goals minus xGContext +1.06

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

16.00 ShotsContext 17.00

5.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.75

33% On target shareContext 34%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

67% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 19%

3.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.75 Shots allowedContext 9.50

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

4.00 BlocksContext 2.25

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

71% Save rateContext 67%

49% PossessionIn forecast 58%

440 PassesContext 475

373 Accurate passesContext 403

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.99 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.00 FoulsContext 12.25

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.72

60% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.70 ShotsContext 13.70

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

35% On target shareContext 34%

11.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

65% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 17%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.30 Shots allowedContext 8.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

3.10 BlocksContext 2.25

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

70% Save rateContext 76%

52% PossessionIn forecast 59%

477 PassesContext 519

410 Accurate passesContext 448

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.05 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.20 FoulsContext 10.90

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km358 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lille

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel31 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep	6.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	31 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	358 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 6S. Baidoo 24J. Gradit

14M. Udol 28A. Thomasson 8M. Sangaré 2R. Aguilar

22W. Saïd 10F. Thauvin

38R. Fofana

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 18C. Mbemba 3N. Ngoy 23A. Mandi

32A. Bouaddi 6N. Bentaleb

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 7M. Fernandez-Pardo

9O. Giroud

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Absences are shown before kick-off

Lille Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.6 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Lille-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Lille · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 5.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Lens	Lille
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–1 H	D 3–3 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Lens wins2 draws4 Lille wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.13 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

30 Mar 2025Lille1–0Lens
26 Oct 2024Lens0–2Lille
29 Mar 2024Lille2–1Lens
8 Oct 2023Lens1–1Lille
4 Mar 2023Lens1–1Lille
9 Oct 2022Lille1–0Lens

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	3.25
Conceded per game	1.25	1.25
Match goals	2.50	4.50	2.77
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	4	4

	Lens	Lille	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	3.25
Conceded per game	1.25	1.25
Match goals	2.50	4.50	2.77
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	10.00	6.25
Corners conceded	4.33	3.50
Match total	14.33	9.75	10.09
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	75% 3/4
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.75
Opponent cards	2.75	2.75
Match total	4.25	4.50	3.89
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4

	Lens	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	5.60
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	10.67	9.60	10.09
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	4.30	3.70	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.15league 3.49

Red cards0.21league 0.38

Cards 5+23%league 36%

Fouls20.6league 23.7

Penalties0.34league 0.54

Home wins50%league 67%

Lens5 with this referee

Record0-1-4 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

L23 Nov 24H · Marseille1–33
L28 Apr 24A · Marseille1–22
L12 Feb 23A · Lyon1–21
D4 Sep 22A · Reims1–13
L21 Nov 21A · Stade Brestois 290–43

Lille14 with this referee

Record6-4-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against3 · 2

D4 May 25H · Marseille1–12
L5 Apr 25A · Lyon1–22
W1 Feb 25H · Saint Etienne4–11
D18 Oct 24A · Monaco0–05
W17 Aug 24A · Reims2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.