Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were clear favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 22). Lens had 3.9 days of rest, Lorient 3.9 and had to travel 541 km.
Away travel541 kmRest days3.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lens62%
Draw22%
Lorient16%
Lens62%
Draw22%
Lorient16%
Lens61%
Draw23%
Lorient16%
Lens55%
Draw25%
Lorient21%
Lens63%
Draw22%
Lorient16%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 89
Team strength
Lens
Lorient
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
28
53
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensLorient
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
33%
On target shareContext
33%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
72%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.17
13.80
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.90
BlocksContext
2.88
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
59%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
398
PassesContext
412
330
Accurate passesContext
349
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.80
FoulsContext
10.90
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
11.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
33%
On target shareContext
33%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
72%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.17
13.80
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.90
BlocksContext
2.88
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
59%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
398
PassesContext
412
330
Accurate passesContext
349
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.80
FoulsContext
10.90
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km558 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel541 km427 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 541 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 558 km | 427 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
24J. Gradit
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
44D. Yongwa
3M. Talbi
2Igor Silva
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
62A. Avom
11T. Le Bris
29D. Karim
15A. Tosin
9M. Bamba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Lorient-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
Lorient · Away
0.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Lille | W 3–0 H | L 1–7 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| LE Havre | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 24 · 2.38 per game | 6 of 24 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Lens wins2 draws1 Lorient wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 3 May 2024Lens2–0Lorient
- 4 Nov 2023Lorient0–0Lens
- 21 May 2023Lorient1–3Lens
- 31 Aug 2022Lens5–2Lorient
- 6 Feb 2022Lorient2–0Lens
- 29 Aug 2021Lens2–2Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Lens | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 7.00 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Lens | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.56 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 7.00 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.89
Red cards0.28league 0.31
Cards 5+52%league 39%
Fouls22.4league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.49
Home wins43%league 52%
Lens9 with this referee
Record5-0-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds4
- L14 Sep 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- L1 Mar 25H · LE Havre3–42
- L18 Jan 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–22
- W25 Aug 24H · Stade Brestois 292–03
- W3 May 24H · Lorient2–01
Lorient4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L3 May 24A · Lens0–22
- L26 Nov 23H · Metz2–32
- L2 Apr 23A · Lille1–33
- D22 Dec 21H · Paris Saint Germain1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
