Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lens62.0%fair odds 1.61
Draw22.4%fair odds 4.46
Lorient15.6%fair odds 6.41
Expected goals1.94 – 0.87total 2.81
Likeliest score2–011.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lens ↓ · Lorient → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lens goals, columns Lorient goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%8.82
- 1–011.1%8.97
- 1–110.7%9.36
- 2–19.9%10.15
- 3–07.3%13.62
- 0–06.6%15.26
- 3–16.4%15.67
- 0–14.7%21.33
- 1–24.4%22.68
- 2–24.3%23.35
Winning margin
18.6%
Lens by 3+
fair 5.39
19.2%
Lens by 2
fair 5.20
24.2%
Lens by 1
fair 4.13
22.4%
Draw
fair 4.46
10.5%
Lorient by 1
fair 9.50
3.8%
Lorient by 2
fair 25.98
1.2%
Lorient by 3+
fair 81.79
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Lens goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
Lorient goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 62.0% | 62.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 22.4% | 21.7% | +0.7 pp |
| Lorient win | 15.6% | 15.6% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 56.0% | -2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 52.2% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Lens | 1.94 | 2.02 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Lorient | 0.87 | 0.91 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lens win62.0%1.61
- Draw22.4%4.46
- Lorient win15.6%6.41
- Double chance Lens or draw84.4%1.18
- Double chance Lens or Lorient77.6%1.29
- Double chance Lorient or draw38.0%2.63
- Draw no bet Lens79.9%1.25
- Draw no bet Lorient20.1%4.97
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.1%3.22
- Over 4.515.4%6.49
- Under 1.522.4%4.47
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.568.9%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes50.3%1.99
- No49.7%2.01
- Yes and over 2.539.6%2.53
- Lens win and yes26.6%3.76
- Draw and yes15.9%6.30
- Lorient win and yes7.8%12.80
Team goals
- Lens over 0.585.7%1.17
- Lens over 1.557.8%1.73
- Lens over 2.530.8%3.25
- Lorient over 0.558.1%1.72
- Lorient over 1.521.6%4.63
- Lorient over 2.55.8%17.29
- Lens clean sheet41.9%2.38
- Lorient clean sheet14.3%6.97
- Lens win to nil35.4%2.83
- Lorient win to nil7.8%12.84
Handicap
- Lens −1.537.8%2.65
- Lens −2.518.6%5.39
- Lorient +1.562.2%1.61
- Lorient +2.581.4%1.23
- Lorient −1.55.1%19.72
- Lens +1.594.9%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored94
Favourite won54.3%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.569
Over 2.5 called right57.4%
BTTS called right53.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 29 | 44.4% | 41.4% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 54.0% | 52.4% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 65.1% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 84.7% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 67 of 94 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6214 | 0.6019 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 40.7% |
| Favourite won | 44.8% | 47.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 67 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Rennes 4–1 Strasbourg36·27·37
- ✓Auxerre 0–1 Marseille25·25·50
- ✗Monaco 0–1 Paris FC74·17·10
- ✓Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Nice80·13·6
- ✗Paris FC 3–3 Lyon15·21·64
- ✗Toulouse 2–2 Rennes44·27·29
- ✓Strasbourg 3–0 Auxerre59·23·18
- ✓Nantes 3–5 Monaco26·26·48
- ✗Marseille 2–2 Angers71·18·10
- ✗Metz 2–0 Lens19·24·58
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 94 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.