Lens vs Lyon – 16 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 16 · 16:00 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens

0–1Full time

Lyon

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 44). Lens had ? days of rest, Lyon ? and had to travel 542 km.

Away travel542 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Lens36%

Draw27%

Lyon37%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.40

Lens36%

Draw27%

Lyon37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35

Lens36%

Draw27%

Lyon37%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.40

Lens29%

Draw26%

Lyon45%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.56

Lens36%

Draw27%

Lyon37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35

Over 2.5 52% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 45

Team strength

Lens

Lyon

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 59

63 AttackIn forecast 55

53 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

Lyon

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.86

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.00 ShotsContext 14.70

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

36% On target shareContext 38%

10.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

67% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.80 Shots allowedContext 13.00

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.70 BlocksContext 3.00

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

80% Save rateContext 56%

51% PossessionIn forecast 58%

480 PassesContext 547

405 Accurate passesContext 484

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.13 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.60 FoulsContext 12.30

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lyon

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel542 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	542 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

14M. Udol 20M. Sarr 6S. Baidoo

3D. Machado 18A. Diouf 28A. Thomasson 2R. Aguilar

29M. Guilavogui 22W. Saïd

38R. Fofana

Lyon Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40R. Descamps(G)

16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 20S. Kumbedi

6F. Tessmann 23T. Morton

11M. Fofana 8C. Tolisso 98A. Maitland-Niles

69G. Mikautadze

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Absences are shown before kick-off

Lyon Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Lyon+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home No home games yet this season.

Lyon · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Lens wins2 draws2 Lyon wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 13%

4 May 2025Lyon1–2Lens
15 Sep 2024Lens0–0Lyon
3 Mar 2024Lyon0–3Lens
2 Dec 2023Lens3–2Lyon
12 Feb 2023Lyon2–1Lens
2 Oct 2022Lens1–0Lyon

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Lens	Lyon	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	52%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	6.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Lens	Lyon	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	5.20
Corners conceded	4.00	4.90
Match total	8.78	10.10	13.00
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	2.40
Match total	4.10	4.60	6.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.53league 5.00

Red cards0.38league 1.00

Cards 5+36%league 100%

Fouls25.9league 19.0

Penalties0.38league 0.00

Home wins58%league 100%

Lens6 with this referee

Record3-0-3 Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

W6 Apr 25H · Saint Etienne1–03
L8 Feb 25A · Nice0–24
W19 Oct 24A · Saint Etienne2–02
L12 Apr 24A · Metz1–25
W20 Apr 22H · Montpellier2–01

Lyon2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

L28 Mar 25A · Strasbourg2–42
W4 Mar 22A · Lorient4–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.