Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lens35.8%fair odds 2.79
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Lyon37.4%fair odds 2.67
Expected goals1.36 – 1.40total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lens ↓ · Lyon → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lens goals, columns Lyon goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.87
- 1–28.4%11.88
- 0–18.2%12.14
- 2–18.2%12.19
- 1–08.0%12.49
- 0–07.0%14.29
- 0–26.2%16.15
- 2–05.9%17.02
- 2–25.7%17.47
- 1–33.9%25.52
Winning margin
5.9%
Lens by 3+
fair 16.87
10.6%
Lens by 2
fair 9.44
19.3%
Lens by 1
fair 5.19
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
19.8%
Lyon by 1
fair 5.05
11.2%
Lyon by 2
fair 8.95
6.5%
Lyon by 3+
fair 15.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Lens goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Lyon goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 35.8% | 35.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Lyon win | 37.4% | 36.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 50.0% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 55.0% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Lens | 1.36 | 1.33 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Lyon | 1.40 | 1.35 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lens win35.8%2.79
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Lyon win37.4%2.67
- Double chance Lens or draw62.6%1.60
- Double chance Lens or Lyon73.2%1.37
- Double chance Lyon or draw64.2%1.56
- Draw no bet Lens48.9%2.05
- Draw no bet Lyon51.1%1.96
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.8%1.30
- Over 2.552.0%1.92
- Over 3.529.8%3.35
- Over 4.514.5%6.87
- Under 1.523.2%4.30
- Under 2.548.0%2.08
- Under 3.570.2%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.30
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- Lens win and yes18.0%5.55
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Lyon win and yes18.8%5.33
Team goals
- Lens over 0.574.3%1.35
- Lens over 1.539.4%2.54
- Lens over 2.515.7%6.38
- Lyon over 0.575.2%1.33
- Lyon over 1.540.7%2.46
- Lyon over 2.516.5%6.04
- Lens clean sheet24.8%4.04
- Lyon clean sheet25.7%3.90
- Lens win to nil17.8%5.63
- Lyon win to nil18.7%5.35
Handicap
- Lens −1.516.5%6.05
- Lens −2.55.9%16.87
- Lyon +1.583.5%1.20
- Lyon +2.594.1%1.06
- Lyon −1.517.6%5.67
- Lens +1.582.4%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored1
Favourite won0.0%
Avg chance given to result32.9%
1X2 Brier0.685
Over 2.5 called right0.0%
BTTS called right0.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 40.6% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 1 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✗Rennes 1–0 Marseille33·26·41
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 1 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.