Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lens. Lens were without S. Baidoo. Lyon were without M. Niakhaté. Lens had 21 days of rest, Lyon 20 and had to travel 542 km. Weather to note: heavy rain.
Away travel542 kmRest days21 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lens47%
Draw22%
Lyon31%
Lens42%
Draw26%
Lyon32%
Lens47%
Draw23%
Lyon30%
Lens39%
Draw23%
Lyon38%
Lens47%
Draw22%
Lyon31%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
Heavy rain
16°CRain
- Precipitation 6.4 mm
- Wind 24 km/h
- Humidity 93%
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 95
Team strength
Lens
Lyon
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
63
AttackIn forecast
55
53
DefenceIn forecast
56
26
Form indexContext
72
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensLyon
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
3.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-1.85
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.00
ShotsContext
13.20
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
43%
On target shareContext
36%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
74%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.50
BlocksContext
1.80
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
88%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
482
PassesContext
464
417
Accurate passesContext
398
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.40
FoulsContext
11.80
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
2.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.90
ShotsContext
13.80
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
37%
On target shareContext
44%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
68%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.11
BlocksContext
2.10
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
79%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
454
PassesContext
446
384
Accurate passesContext
380
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.00
FoulsContext
12.30
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
LLWDL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
Lyon
DWDWW
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel542 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 72 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Ligue 1 2026-2027, 18 Sep | 20Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 542 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
32Kyllian Antonio
25P. Ganiou
24J. Gradit
14M. Udol
8Y. Titraoui
27M. Cuisance
2R. Aguilar
7F. Sotoca
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
21R. Kluivert
20F. Bacher
13Z. Athekame
23T. Morton
2M. Bidstrup
8C. Tolisso
10P. Šulc
7E. Nuamah
17I. Openda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −8.2% · Defence line −17.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF S. Baidoo Starter 7.13 Def −6.6%
- DEF Saud Abdulhamid Rotation 6.83 Def −3.3%
- MID Y. Titraoui Rotation 6.91 Att −2.0% Def −1.6%
- ATT A. Sima Rotation 6.66 Att −3.5%
- DEF J. Todibo Rotation 6.49 Def −2.2%
- MID T. Hazard Rotation 6.24 Att −1.4% Def −1.1%
Lyon
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −1.9% · Defence line −15.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Niakhaté Starter 7.03 Def −11.3%
- DEF N. Tagliafico Rotation 6.66 Def −2.6%
- DEF Mohamed Ouédraogo Rotation 6.92 Def −1.6%
- ATT Rémi Himbert Rotation 6.80 Att −1.4%
- ATT J. Duranville Depth 6.70 Att −0.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lyon+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Lyon · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 5–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Lens wins2 draws3 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.60 – 0.90
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 17 May 2026Lyon0–4Lens
- 16 Aug 2025Lens0–1Lyon
- 4 May 2025Lyon1–2Lens
- 15 Sep 2024Lens0–0Lyon
- 3 Mar 2024Lyon0–3Lens
- 2 Dec 2023Lens3–2Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lens | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.60 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.60 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Lens | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 13.22 | 10.89 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 95 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.72league 3.13
Red cards0.23league 0.11
Cards 5+37%league 24%
Fouls24.2league 23.9
Penalties0.28league 0.29
Home wins41%league 40%
Lens7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W30 Jan 26H · LE Havre1–01
- W4 May 25A · Lyon2–13
- D14 Dec 24A · Auxerre2–21
- D21 Sep 24A · Rennes1–14
- W12 Mar 23A · Clermont Foot4–02
Lyon10 with this referee
Record3-4-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- D15 Mar 26A · LE Havre0–04
- D29 Oct 25A · Paris FC3–33
- L4 May 25H · Lens1–22
- W4 Jan 25H · Montpellier1–01
- D27 Oct 24H · Auxerre2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens5 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lyon5 games · scored 10 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
