Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Lens had 6.3 days of rest, Marseille 7 and had to travel 817 km.
Away travel817 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lens38%
Draw27%
Marseille35%
Lens37%
Draw27%
Marseille36%
Lens36%
Draw27%
Marseille37%
Lens31%
Draw27%
Marseille43%
Lens38%
Draw27%
Marseille35%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 75
Team strength
Lens
Marseille
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
63
AttackIn forecast
48
53
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensMarseille
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.63
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
63%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
13.38
ShotsContext
14.13
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
32%
On target shareContext
41%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
74%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
19%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.25
Shots allowedContext
9.13
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.13
5.00
BlocksContext
2.57
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
74%
Save rateContext
75%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
391
PassesContext
573
321
Accurate passesContext
516
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.75
FoulsContext
12.63
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+1.08
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.30
ShotsContext
11.90
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
31%
On target shareContext
48%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
72%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
23%
2.83
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.20
BlocksContext
2.89
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
76%
Save rateContext
79%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
410
PassesContext
527
341
Accurate passesContext
469
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.70
FoulsContext
13.70
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel817 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 817 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
24J. Gradit
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
28B. Pavard
62A. Murillo
18A. Vermeeren
17M. O'Riley
14Igor Paixão
10M. Greenwood
22T. Weah
34Robinio Vaz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+1.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Marseille-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Marseille · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | W 5–2 H |
| Rennes | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 2–1 A | W 6–2 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Lens wins0 draws3 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 8 Mar 2025Marseille0–1Lens
- 23 Nov 2024Lens1–3Marseille
- 28 Apr 2024Marseille2–1Lens
- 12 Nov 2023Lens1–0Marseille
- 6 May 2023Lens2–1Marseille
- 22 Oct 2022Marseille0–1Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Lens | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.14 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 12.14 | 8.57 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.88 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.26 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Lens | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 7.88 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.40 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 75 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.57league 3.77
Red cards0.25league 0.31
Cards 5+28%league 36%
Fouls24.5league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.53
Home wins48%league 52%
Lens9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W15 Mar 25H · Rennes1–01
- D6 Oct 24A · Strasbourg2–24
- W9 Mar 24H · Stade Brestois 291–01
- D8 Dec 23A · Montpellier0–03
- L16 Sep 23H · Metz0–11
Marseille9 with this referee
Record7-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W27 Apr 25H · Stade Brestois 294–11
- W2 Mar 25H · Nantes2–01
- W31 Aug 24A · Toulouse3–12
- D4 Nov 23H · Lille0–02
- L27 May 23H · Stade Brestois 291–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens8 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
Marseille8 games · scored 21 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
9
3
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 27 · conceded 10
5
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
9
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
