Lens vs Nantes – 8 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 33 Fri, May 8 · 19:45 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 2nd · 64 pts · 31 played WLWDD

1–0Full time

Nantes 17th · 23 pts · 32 played DDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were clear favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Lens had 6 days of rest, Nantes 6.2 and had to travel 480 km.

Away travel480 kmRest days6 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lens64%

Draw20%

Nantes16%

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.03

Lens69%

Draw19%

Nantes12%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.81

Lens65%

Draw20%

Nantes15%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.00

Lens57%

Draw22%

Nantes21%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.15

Lens64%

Draw20%

Nantes16%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.06

Over 2.5 64% Both score 58% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 58

Team strength

Lens

Nantes

57 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

63 AttackIn forecast 24

53 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

Nantes

1.97 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.91

1.06 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.59

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

84% Scored inContext 59%

32% Clean sheetsContext 22%

15.90 ShotsContext 10.69

5.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

33% On target shareContext 30%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.03

70% Box shareContext 62%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.61 OffsidesContext 1.70

10.48 Shots allowedContext 13.13

3.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.87

3.40 BlocksContext 4.11

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

72% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 42%

459 PassesContext 343

392 Accurate passesContext 273

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.48 FoulsContext 12.19

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.63

1.84 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 31 and 32 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

90% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

21.10 ShotsContext 12.10

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

29% On target shareContext 34%

14.11 Shots in the boxContext 9.22

65% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.38

8.70 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25

2.60 BlocksContext 3.56

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

67% Save rateContext 74%

56% PossessionIn forecast 37%

489 PassesContext 285

425 Accurate passesContext 217

87% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.00 FoulsContext 13.10

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,791 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel480 km200 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	480 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,791 km	200 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 6S. Baidoo 25P. Ganiou

14M. Udol 21A. Haidara 5A. Bulatović 19A. Sima

22W. Saïd 38R. Fofana

11O. Édouard

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 26U. Radaković 6C. Awaziem

24F. Guilbert 8J. Lepenant 28I. Sissoko 21M. Kaba 22M. Acapandié

37I. Ganago 10M. Abline

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Scores -0.11 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.13 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lens-0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nantes+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 2.60points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 13-0-2
Scored: 2.27
Conceded: 0.73

Nantes · Away 0.69points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-9
Scored: 0.69
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lens	Nantes
Nice	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Toulouse	W 3–2 HW 3–0 A	D 2–2 A
Lille	L 0–3 AW 3–0 H	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Angers	W 5–1 HW 2–1 A	L 0–1 HL 1–4 A
Lorient	L 1–2 AW 3–0 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Metz	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Strasbourg	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 2–3 HL 0–1 A
Monaco	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A	L 1–3 AL 3–5 H
Paris FC	W 5–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Rennes	W 3–1 HD 0–0 A	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H
LE Havre	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Marseille	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Lyon	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Points	61 of 90 · 2.03 per game	23 of 93 · 0.74 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Lens wins2 draws2 Nantes wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.33 Over 2.578% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 11%

6 Dec 2025Nantes1–2Lens
23 Feb 2025Nantes3–1Lens
9 Nov 2024Lens3–2Nantes
3 Feb 2024Nantes0–1Lens
28 Oct 2023Lens4–0Nantes
19 Feb 2023Lens3–1Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.97	0.91
Conceded per game	1.06	1.59
Match goals	3.03	2.50	3.28
Over 1.5	84%	69%
Over 2.5	68%	47%	64%
Over 3.5	29%	22%
Both teams scored	55%	47%	58%
Clean sheets	32%	22%
Failed to score	16%	41%
Games	31	32

	Lens	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	4.00	2.00	3.28
Over 1.5	100%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	64%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	6.24	3.47
Corners conceded	3.62	5.67
Match total	9.86	9.14	9.30
Over 8.5	62% 18/29	63% 19/30
Over 9.5	52% 15/29	47% 14/30
Over 10.5	34% 10/29	43% 13/30
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.09
Opponent cards	2.23	2.38
Match total	4.23	4.47	3.96
Over 3.5	61% 19/31	72% 23/32
Over 4.5	45% 14/31	44% 14/32

	Lens	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	7.44	4.00
Corners conceded	2.78	5.22
Match total	10.22	9.22	9.30
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	3.80	4.40	3.96
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.21league 3.69

Red cards0.38league 0.27

Cards 5+50%league 36%

Fouls26.7league 23.6

Penalties0.36league 0.37

Home wins43%league 47%

Lens6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W8 Mar 26H · Metz3–00
W2 Jan 26A · Toulouse3–03
L27 Apr 25H · Auxerre0–45
L30 Mar 25A · Lille0–13
W8 Dec 24H · Montpellier2–02

Nantes6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 2

L22 Mar 26H · Strasbourg2–33
L7 Feb 26H · Lyon0–14
D20 Sep 25H · Rennes2–23
D22 Sep 24A · Angers1–14
W12 Feb 23H · Lorient1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.