Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were clear favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Lens. Lens had 14.7 days of rest, Paris FC 15.8 and had to travel 179 km.
Away travel179 kmRest days14.7 · 15.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lens68%
Draw19%
Paris FC12%
Lens69%
Draw19%
Paris FC12%
Lens69%
Draw19%
Paris FC12%
Lens61%
Draw22%
Paris FC17%
Lens69%
Draw19%
Paris FC12%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 24
Team strength
Lens
Paris FC
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
46
53
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensParis FC
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
57%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.86
ShotsContext
13.86
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
36%
10.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
71%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
3.25
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.71
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.29
BlocksContext
4.17
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
391
PassesContext
531
321
Accurate passesContext
469
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.00
FoulsContext
11.14
13.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
70%
Scored inContext
86%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.10
ShotsContext
13.86
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
31%
On target shareContext
36%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
67%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.71
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.40
BlocksContext
4.17
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
399
PassesContext
531
332
Accurate passesContext
469
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.80
FoulsContext
11.14
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.14
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel179 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 15.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 179 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
24J. Gradit
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
29M. Guilavogui
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
31Samir Sophian Chergui
14H. Traoré
17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou
21M. Lopez
27M. Simon
11J. Krasso
10I. Kebbal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Paris FC+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Paris FC · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.57 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Lens | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.57 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 11.83 | 9.29 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 5.43 | 2.86 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Lens | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 9.29 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 2.86 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.70
Red cards0.21league 0.33
Cards 5+17%league 34%
Fouls21.0league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.52
Home wins50%league 54%
LensNo previous matches with this referee.
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W31 Aug 25H · Metz3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens7 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Paris FC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Paris FC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
