Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lens had 5.1 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 5.1 and had to travel 576 km.
Away travel576 kmRest days5.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lens46%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2928%
Lens46%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2928%
Lens46%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2928%
Lens39%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2934%
Lens46%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2928%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 18
Team strength
Lens
Stade Brestois 29
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
63
AttackIn forecast
47
53
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensStade Brestois 29
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
17.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
21%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
64%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.50
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.00
BlocksContext
—
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
78%
Save rateContext
44%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
421
PassesContext
389
359
Accurate passesContext
306
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.80
14.50
FoulsContext
10.00
18.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.20
ShotsContext
12.60
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
34%
On target shareContext
33%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
66%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.60
BlocksContext
3.89
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
74%
Save rateContext
46%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
493
PassesContext
411
424
Accurate passesContext
335
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.60
FoulsContext
12.60
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km442 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel576 km1,403 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 576 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 442 km | 1,403 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.9 | 15.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
14M. Udol
20M. Sarr
24J. Gradit
3D. Machado
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
38R. Fofana
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1R. Majecki(G)
2B. Locko
4M. Diaz
26J. Le Cardinal
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
23K. Doumbia
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
10R. Del Castillo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Lens wins1 draws3 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 20 Apr 2025Stade Brestois 291–3Lens
- 25 Aug 2024Lens2–0Stade Brestois 29
- 9 Mar 2024Lens1–0Stade Brestois 29
- 13 Aug 2023Stade Brestois 293–2Lens
- 5 Feb 2023Stade Brestois 291–1Lens
- 7 Aug 2022Lens3–2Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Lens | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 13.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 21.00 | 8.00 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.00 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Lens | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 10.10 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.22
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+33%league 33%
Fouls27.7league 23.4
Penalties0.39league 0.33
Home wins50%league 67%
Lens2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Jan 25H · Angers1–01
- W29 Nov 24A · Reims2–02
Stade Brestois 292 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Apr 25A · Saint Etienne3–34
- W9 Mar 25H · Angers2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Stade Brestois 292 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 17 · conceded 24
3
2
0-15
4
6
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
6
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
