Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lens had 13.8 days of rest, Strasbourg 13 and had to travel 410 km.
Away travel410 kmRest days13.8 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lens46%
Draw26%
Strasbourg28%
Lens45%
Draw27%
Strasbourg28%
Lens45%
Draw27%
Strasbourg28%
Lens38%
Draw27%
Strasbourg35%
Lens46%
Draw26%
Strasbourg28%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 96
Team strength
Lens
Strasbourg
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
63
AttackIn forecast
40
53
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensStrasbourg
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
67%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.83
ShotsContext
11.25
4.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.58
38%
On target shareContext
41%
9.58
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
74%
Box shareContext
73%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.73
13.67
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
4.83
BlocksContext
3.10
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
73%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
419
PassesContext
492
351
Accurate passesContext
430
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.92
FoulsContext
11.67
12.42
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
70%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
12.00
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
39%
On target shareContext
42%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
76%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
18%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.50
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
5.20
BlocksContext
3.25
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
72%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
418
PassesContext
532
349
Accurate passesContext
469
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.60
FoulsContext
11.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,643 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Strasbourg
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel410 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 410 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,643 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
23M. Sarr
24L. Høgsberg
7Diego Moreira
32V. Barco
29S. El Mourabet
22G. Doué
9J. Panichelli
80F. Lemaréchal
10E. Emegha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Strasbourg-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-1
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 0.67
Strasbourg · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | W 4–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Metz | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Marseille | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Rennes | D 0–0 A | L 1–4 A |
| Lille | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | D 3–3 A |
| LE Havre | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 19 of 30 · 1.90 per game | 16 of 30 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Lens wins2 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 16 Feb 2025Lens0–2Strasbourg
- 6 Oct 2024Strasbourg2–2Lens
- 10 Feb 2024Lens3–1Strasbourg
- 29 Sep 2023Strasbourg0–1Lens
- 7 Apr 2023Lens2–1Strasbourg
- 11 Jan 2023Strasbourg2–2Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Lens | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.36 | 3.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 11.45 | 7.42 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 7/11 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.91 | 4.08 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Lens | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 6.77 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.20 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 96 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 3.88
Red cards0.24league 0.31
Cards 5+32%league 39%
Fouls24.0league 24.4
Penalties0.35league 0.49
Home wins39%league 50%
Lens10 with this referee
Record5-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds3
- L23 Feb 25A · Nantes1–35
- W3 Mar 24A · Lyon3–02
- L14 Jan 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–21
- W29 Sep 23A · Strasbourg1–04
- D25 Feb 23A · Montpellier1–13
Strasbourg9 with this referee
Record1-4-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 4
Reds1
- L17 May 25H · LE Havre2–33
- D21 Sep 24A · Lille3–32
- L4 May 24A · LE Havre1–31
- L24 Feb 24H · Stade Brestois 290–33
- D25 Nov 23H · Marseille1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens12 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Strasbourg12 games · scored 24 · conceded 16
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
6
61-75
7
7
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
2
0-15
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
