Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lens45.7%fair odds 2.19
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Strasbourg27.9%fair odds 3.58
Expected goals1.55 – 1.17total 2.72
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lens ↓ · Strasbourg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lens goals, columns Strasbourg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.96
- 1–09.6%10.40
- 2–19.3%10.78
- 2–08.0%12.56
- 0–07.2%13.84
- 0–17.0%14.19
- 1–27.0%14.38
- 2–25.4%18.51
- 3–14.8%20.81
- 0–24.5%22.35
Winning margin
9.5%
Lens by 3+
fair 10.50
14.0%
Lens by 2
fair 7.14
22.2%
Lens by 1
fair 4.51
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
16.4%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 6.08
7.9%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 12.71
3.6%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 27.82
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Lens goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
7%4+
Strasbourg goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 45.7% | 46.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Strasbourg win | 27.9% | 27.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 51.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 55.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Lens | 1.55 | 1.57 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 1.17 | 1.17 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lens win45.7%2.19
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Strasbourg win27.9%3.58
- Double chance Lens or draw72.1%1.39
- Double chance Lens or Strasbourg73.6%1.36
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw54.3%1.84
- Draw no bet Lens62.1%1.61
- Draw no bet Strasbourg37.9%2.64
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.1%1.31
- Over 2.551.1%1.96
- Over 3.529.0%3.45
- Over 4.514.0%7.14
- Under 1.523.9%4.19
- Under 2.548.9%2.05
- Under 3.571.0%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.542.3%2.36
- Lens win and yes21.7%4.61
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Strasbourg win and yes14.0%7.15
Team goals
- Lens over 0.578.9%1.27
- Lens over 1.546.0%2.17
- Lens over 2.520.5%4.88
- Strasbourg over 0.568.8%1.45
- Strasbourg over 1.532.5%3.08
- Strasbourg over 2.511.3%8.85
- Lens clean sheet31.2%3.21
- Strasbourg clean sheet21.1%4.73
- Lens win to nil24.0%4.17
- Strasbourg win to nil13.9%7.19
Handicap
- Lens −1.523.5%4.25
- Lens −2.59.5%10.50
- Strasbourg +1.576.5%1.31
- Strasbourg +2.590.5%1.11
- Strasbourg −1.511.5%8.73
- Lens +1.588.5%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored109
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right57.8%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 18 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 35 | 44.5% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.9% | 76.5% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 84.7% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 82 of 109 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6145 | 0.5988 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 40.6% |
| Favourite won | 46.3% | 46.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 82 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 109 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.