Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Toulouse. Lens had 13 days of rest, Toulouse 5.1 and had to travel 767 km.
Away travel767 kmRest days13 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Lens58%
Draw23%
Toulouse19%
Lens58%
Draw23%
Toulouse18%
Lens58%
Draw23%
Toulouse19%
Lens50%
Draw25%
Toulouse25%
Lens58%
Draw23%
Toulouse20%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 99
Team strength
Lens
Toulouse
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
63
AttackIn forecast
45
53
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensToulouse
1.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.34
0.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.34
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
82%
Scored inContext
66%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
14.71
ShotsContext
12.55
5.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
34%
On target shareContext
33%
10.37
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
71%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.70
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.96
Shots allowedContext
11.14
3.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.48
BlocksContext
3.07
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.58
73%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
450
PassesContext
372
383
Accurate passesContext
305
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.75
FoulsContext
13.72
12.04
Fouls sufferedContext
11.14
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.10
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
90%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.20
ShotsContext
13.60
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
29%
On target shareContext
32%
10.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
68%
Box shareContext
49%
14%
ConversionContext
6%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.60
BlocksContext
2.20
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
60%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
460
PassesContext
429
398
Accurate passesContext
359
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.60
FoulsContext
13.00
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km63 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel767 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 767 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 63 km | 1,176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
27A. Masuaku
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
22W. Saïd
7F. Sotoca
38R. Fofana
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
4C. Cresswell
35S. Koumbassa
12W. Kamanzi
45A. Vossah
23C. Cásseres
15A. Dønnum
11S. Hidalgo
10G. Gboho
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Toulouse+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-0-2
- Scored
- 2.21
- Conceded
- 0.64
Toulouse · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-7
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–3 AW 3–0 H | L 0–4 HL 1–2 A |
| Angers | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Lorient | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Metz | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H |
| Strasbourg | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Rennes | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Nice | W 2–0 H | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 AL 3–6 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 56 of 81 · 2.07 per game | 37 of 84 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Lens wins1 draws1 Toulouse wins
Goals per game1.71 – 0.43
Over 2.543%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 14%
- 2 Jan 2026Toulouse0–3Lens
- 10 May 2025Toulouse1–1Lens
- 5 Jan 2025Lens0–1Toulouse
- 28 Jan 2024Toulouse0–2Lens
- 24 Sep 2023Lens2–1Toulouse
- 2 May 2023Toulouse0–1Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.93 | 1.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.96 | 1.34 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.69 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 41% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 34% | |
| Games | 28 | 29 |
| Lens | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.59 | 4.66 | |
| Match total | 9.48 | 9.14 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 13/27 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 2.03 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 4.31 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 17/28 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Lens | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 8.10 | 9.09 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.10 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 3.67
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+54%league 36%
Fouls22.5league 23.8
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins43%league 48%
Lens11 with this referee
Record7-0-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 5
Reds5
- W7 Feb 26H · Rennes3–14
- W2 Nov 25H · Lorient3–02
- L14 Sep 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- L1 Mar 25H · LE Havre3–42
- L18 Jan 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–22
Toulouse6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L6 Apr 25A · Marseille2–33
- L19 May 24H · Stade Brestois 290–31
- W3 Mar 24H · Nice2–12
- D21 May 23A · Nice0–02
- L29 Dec 22A · Marseille1–62
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens28 games · scored 54 · conceded 27
6
4
0-15
6
5
16-30
11
5
31-45
13
3
46-60
6
7
61-75
12
3
76-90
Toulouse29 games · scored 39 · conceded 39
6
4
0-15
4
7
16-30
6
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
5
3
61-75
13
9
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
4
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
