Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alaves. Levante had 5.2 days of rest, Alaves 4 and had to travel 422 km.
Away travel422 kmRest days5.2 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2
Levante33%
Draw29%
Alaves38%
Levante41%
Draw27%
Alaves32%
Levante34%
Draw29%
Alaves37%
Levante27%
Draw28%
Alaves45%
Levante34%
Draw28%
Alaves38%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 30
Team strength
Levante
Alaves
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
55
AttackIn forecast
48
41
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteAlaves
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
60%
Scored inContext
64%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
9.92
ShotsContext
11.64
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.96
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
63%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.65
16.20
Shots allowedContext
11.92
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.76
4.28
BlocksContext
3.96
3.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.54
70%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
351
PassesContext
429
277
Accurate passesContext
348
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.20
FoulsContext
14.92
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.72
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.30
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
27%
On target shareContext
36%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
58%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.80
BlocksContext
4.00
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
72%
Save rateContext
61%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
361
PassesContext
447
288
Accurate passesContext
365
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.70
FoulsContext
13.40
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km605 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Alaves
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel422 km1,339 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 422 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 605 km | 1,339 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
14U. Raghouber
27Paco Cortés
24Carlos Álvarez
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
26Kareem Tunde
9Iván Romero
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
5Jon Pacheco
14F. Tenaglia
17Jonny
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Ángel Pérez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alaves+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-7
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 1.92
Alaves · Away
0.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-8
- Scored
- 0.58
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Girona | W 4–0 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 72 · 0.75 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Levante wins2 draws2 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025Alaves2–1Levante
- 15 May 2022Levante3–1Alaves
- 6 Nov 2021Alaves2–1Levante
- 8 May 2021Alaves2–2Levante
- 8 Nov 2020Levante1–1Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.76 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 44% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 56% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 36% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Levante | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.82 | 5.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.09 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 9.91 | 9.82 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.24 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 4.44 | 4.28 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 17/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 12/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Levante | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 10.01 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.80 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.18
Red cards0.10league 0.27
Cards 5+40%league 46%
Fouls23.5league 24.5
Penalties0.43league 0.38
Home wins43%league 47%
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
Alaves3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D26 May 24A · Las Palmas1–11
- L31 Mar 24H · Real Sociedad0–12
- L18 Dec 23A · Girona0–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante25 games · scored 26 · conceded 44
3
6
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
9
31-45
4
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
7
12
76-90
Alaves25 games · scored 23 · conceded 32
5
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
6
7
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
