Levante vs Atletico Madrid – 31 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 22 Sat, Jan 31 · 17:30 Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

Levante 19th · 17 pts · 20 played DWDLW

0–0Full time

Atletico Madrid 3rd · 44 pts · 21 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Levante had 7.9 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 6.2 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days7.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 2

Levante20%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.69

Levante19%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid58%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.86

Levante20%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.70

Levante15%

Draw23%

Atletico Madrid62%

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.89

Levante21%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid55%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.80

Over 2.5 49% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 34

Team strength

Levante

Atletico Madrid

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

55 AttackIn forecast 82

41 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Levante

Atletico Madrid

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.81

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.81

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

70% Scored inContext 95%

15% Clean sheetsContext 43%

10.30 ShotsContext 13.24

3.47 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.52

32% On target shareContext 42%

6.95 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

67% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.31 OffsidesContext 2.44

16.70 Shots allowedContext 10.24

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

4.55 BlocksContext 2.68

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.16

71% Save rateContext 73%

41% PossessionIn forecast 54%

342 PassesContext 504

267 Accurate passesContext 433

78% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.60 FoulsContext 11.14

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.95

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 21 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

60% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.00 ShotsContext 14.40

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

31% On target shareContext 38%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

66% Box shareContext 68%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.75

16.90 Shots allowedContext 11.50

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

4.70 BlocksContext 3.10

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

72% Save rateContext 64%

42% PossessionIn forecast 53%

349 PassesContext 499

274 Accurate passesContext 423

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.20 FoulsContext 11.40

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.60

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levante

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Levante	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Jan	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levante Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Ryan(G)

3A. Matturro 2M. Moreno 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

14U. Raghouber 10Pablo Martínez

18Iker Losada 24Carlos Álvarez 26Kareem Tunde

9Iván Romero

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 15C. Lenglet 24R. Le Normand 16N. Molina

23N. González 5J. Cardoso 8Pablo Barrios 14Marcos Llorente

9A. Sørloth 11T. Almada

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Levante Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Levante-0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Levante · Home 0.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-5
Scored: 1.22
Conceded: 2.22

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.30points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-3
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 17 this season

Opponent	Levante	Atletico Madrid
Elche	W 3–2 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 AL 1–4 H	W 5–2 H
Espanyol	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Sevilla	W 3–0 A	W 3–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Osasuna	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Athletic Club	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 A
Valencia	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 H
Celta Vigo	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–3 H	W 3–2 H
Oviedo	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Getafe	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Girona	W 4–0 A	W 3–0 A
Real Betis	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Barcelona	L 2–3 H	L 1–3 A
Alaves	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Points	17 of 57 · 0.89 per game	38 of 57 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Levante wins2 draws1 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.20 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

8 Nov 2025Atletico Madrid3–1Levante
16 Feb 2022Atletico Madrid0–1Levante
28 Oct 2021Levante2–2Atletico Madrid
20 Feb 2021Atletico Madrid0–2Levante
17 Feb 2021Levante1–1Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Levante	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.81
Conceded per game	1.70	0.81
Match goals	2.90	2.62	2.63
Over 1.5	95%	81%
Over 2.5	50%	43%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	19%
Both teams scored	55%	52%	50%
Clean sheets	15%	43%
Failed to score	30%	5%
Games	20	21

	Levante	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.70
Conceded per game	1.60	0.70
Match goals	2.60	2.40	2.63
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Levante	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	3.82	6.81
Corners conceded	6.24	3.67
Match total	10.06	10.48	9.55
Over 8.5	53% 9/17	76% 16/21
Over 9.5	41% 7/17	52% 11/21
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	52% 11/21
Cards
Cards	2.25	2.05
Opponent cards	2.20	2.14
Match total	4.45	4.19	4.43
Over 3.5	70% 14/20	62% 13/21
Over 4.5	50% 10/20	43% 9/21

	Levante	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	6.30
Corners conceded	6.00	4.70
Match total	10.25	11.00	9.55
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.30
Opponent cards	2.40	2.10
Match total	4.80	4.40	4.43
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 4.16

Red cards0.21league 0.27

Cards 5+38%league 46%

Fouls25.1league 24.5

Penalties0.24league 0.36

Home wins38%league 48%

Levante

No previous matches with this referee.

Atletico Madrid3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W29 Nov 25H · Oviedo2–00
D30 Aug 25A · Alaves1–13
L19 Apr 25A · Las Palmas0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.