Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Levante had 6.9 days of rest, Barcelona 3.9 and had to travel 302 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel302 kmRest days6.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Levante11%
Draw14%
Barcelona75%
Levante15%
Draw20%
Barcelona65%
Levante10%
Draw14%
Barcelona76%
Levante7%
Draw11%
Barcelona82%
Levante12%
Draw15%
Barcelona73%
Over 2.5 74%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
Heat stress
29°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 46%
Referee · SpainJon Ander Gonzalez Esteban
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 11
Team strength
Levante
Barcelona
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
55
AttackIn forecast
97
41
DefenceIn forecast
92
51
Form indexContext
95
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteBarcelona
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
4.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
3.93
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
25%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
11.25
ShotsContext
21.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.00
31%
On target shareContext
43%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
16.00
54%
Box shareContext
79%
11%
ConversionContext
20%
1.67
OffsidesContext
4.50
14.50
Shots allowedContext
6.50
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.25
BlocksContext
—
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
77%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
378
PassesContext
649
313
Accurate passesContext
584
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.51
9.75
FoulsContext
8.75
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.25
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
2.34
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.66
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.80
ShotsContext
16.30
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.44
34%
On target shareContext
41%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.70
59%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
1.25
OffsidesContext
3.11
13.00
Shots allowedContext
8.20
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.63
BlocksContext
2.14
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
72%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
377
PassesContext
663
313
Accurate passesContext
602
83%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.19
9.80
FoulsContext
9.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
LDWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km935 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 5 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Barcelona
WWWWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel302 km605 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 95 · 15 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 302 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 935 km | 605 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2A. Mandi
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
7Roger Brugué
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
5Hugo Sotelo
17Víctor García
10P. Ratkov
6Reque
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
8Pedri
16Rodri
7Fermín López
17A. Gordon
11Raphinha
10Lamine Yamal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Barcelona-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Barcelona · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Levante wins1 draws5 Barcelona wins
Goals per game1.17 – 2.67
Over 2.583%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 22 Feb 2026Barcelona3–0Levante
- 23 Aug 2025Levante2–3Barcelona
- 10 Apr 2022Levante2–3Barcelona
- 26 Sep 2021Barcelona3–0Levante
- 11 May 2021Levante3–3Barcelona
- 13 Dec 2020Barcelona1–0Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 4.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.75 | 3.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Levante | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.67 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.00 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.25 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Levante | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.78 | 10.10 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.80 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban Spain · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.91league 4.23
Red cards0.09league 0.26
Cards 5+55%league 49%
Fouls24.8league 24.8
Penalties0.27league 0.32
Home wins36%league 49%
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
BarcelonaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante4 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Barcelona4 games · scored 17 · conceded 2
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
5
0-15
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 30 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
