Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 45). Levante had 7 days of rest, Celta Vigo 6.8 and had to travel 765 km.
Away travel765 kmRest days7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Levante36%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo36%
Levante38%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo35%
Levante36%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo35%
Levante29%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo43%
Levante37%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo36%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 9
Team strength
Levante
Celta Vigo
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
55
AttackIn forecast
36
41
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteCelta Vigo
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.60
ShotsContext
11.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
68%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.71
16.50
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.40
BlocksContext
2.70
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
69%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
335
PassesContext
499
261
Accurate passesContext
431
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.00
FoulsContext
11.40
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.90
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
68%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.43
16.50
Shots allowedContext
12.30
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.40
BlocksContext
3.20
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
69%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
335
PassesContext
515
261
Accurate passesContext
445
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.00
FoulsContext
11.80
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km520 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel765 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 765 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 520 km | 1,167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
5Unai Elguezabal
22J. Toljan
12Unai Vencedor
16K. Arriaga
7Roger Brugué
24Carlos Álvarez
17Víctor García
21E. Eyong
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
8Fran Beltrán
3Óscar Mingueza
15Bryan Zaragoza
7Borja Iglesias
9Ferran Jutglà
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 3.00
Celta Vigo · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Girona | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Elche | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Levante wins2 draws2 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 21 Feb 2022Celta Vigo1–1Levante
- 21 Sep 2021Levante0–2Celta Vigo
- 30 Apr 2021Celta Vigo2–0Levante
- 26 Oct 2020Levante1–1Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Levante | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 9.80 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Levante | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 9.40 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 4.05
Red cards0.33league 0.26
Cards 5+33%league 44%
Fouls26.7league 24.7
Penalties0.44league 0.36
Home wins33%league 48%
Levante1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Sep 25A · Girona4–03
Celta Vigo1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D31 Aug 25H · Villarreal1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
