Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Getafe were slight favourites.
Getafe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Getafe. Levante had 9.3 days of rest, Getafe 8.3 and had to travel 301 km.
Away travel301 kmRest days9.3 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Levante30%
Draw30%
Getafe40%
Levante36%
Draw27%
Getafe36%
Levante30%
Draw30%
Getafe40%
Levante24%
Draw29%
Getafe47%
Levante30%
Draw28%
Getafe42%
Over 2.5 38%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 18
Team strength
Levante
Getafe
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
55
AttackIn forecast
27
41
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteGetafe
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
63%
Scored inContext
60%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.03
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
31%
On target shareContext
31%
7.07
Shots in the boxContext
5.54
63%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.70
16.23
Shots allowedContext
10.37
5.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.93
4.30
BlocksContext
2.37
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
70%
Save rateContext
79%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
344
PassesContext
282
271
Accurate passesContext
195
79%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.57
FoulsContext
13.63
12.23
Fouls sufferedContext
14.23
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.97
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.40
ShotsContext
8.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
30%
On target shareContext
37%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
55%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.78
15.30
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.80
BlocksContext
2.22
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
68%
Save rateContext
84%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
348
PassesContext
248
278
Accurate passesContext
165
80%
Pass accuracyContext
66%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.50
FoulsContext
14.20
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
3.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km894 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel301 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.3La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 301 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 894 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.9 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
14U. Raghouber
9Iván Romero
10Pablo Martínez
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
26Kareem Tunde
19Carlos Espí
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
17Kiko Femenía
10M. Satriano
2D. Dakonam
5Luis Milla
23Adrian Liso
19L. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Getafe+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-7
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.73
Getafe · Away
1.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-7
- Scored
- 0.87
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Oviedo | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Alaves | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 25 of 87 · 0.86 per game | 40 of 87 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Levante wins2 draws2 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 27 Sep 2025Getafe1–1Levante
- 4 Feb 2022Getafe3–0Levante
- 16 Oct 2021Levante0–0Getafe
- 16 May 2021Getafe2–1Levante
- 5 Dec 2020Levante3–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.93 | 2.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 30% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 3% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 40% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Levante | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.70 | 2.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.96 | 8.94 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 14/27 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 12/27 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.43 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 22/30 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 17/30 | 63% 19/30 | |
| Levante | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.80 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 6.40 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 4.28
Red cards0.50league 0.28
Cards 5+56%league 48%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.39league 0.36
Home wins33%league 49%
Levante2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L2 Nov 25H · Celta Vigo1–23
- W20 Sep 25A · Girona4–03
Getafe2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Jan 26A · Girona1–13
- D24 Sep 25H · Alaves1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante30 games · scored 34 · conceded 50
4
6
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
11
31-45
6
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
15
76-90
Getafe30 games · scored 27 · conceded 31
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
4
9
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
7
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
