Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 39). Levante had 11.8 days of rest, Real Sociedad 7.8 and had to travel 447 km.
Away travel447 kmRest days11.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Levante37%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad35%
Levante37%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad36%
Levante36%
Draw29%
Real Sociedad35%
Levante30%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad42%
Levante38%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad35%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 34
Team strength
Levante
Real Sociedad
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
55
AttackIn forecast
62
41
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteReal Sociedad
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.87
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
67%
Scored inContext
81%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
9.73
ShotsContext
13.13
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
35%
On target shareContext
35%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
67%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.83
16.67
Shots allowedContext
12.06
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
4.60
BlocksContext
3.62
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
69%
Save rateContext
63%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
344
PassesContext
442
269
Accurate passesContext
366
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.53
FoulsContext
15.38
11.47
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.10
ShotsContext
11.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
40%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
68%
Box shareContext
67%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.43
OffsidesContext
3.25
15.80
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.90
BlocksContext
2.88
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
65%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
362
PassesContext
419
283
Accurate passesContext
342
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.50
FoulsContext
15.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest11.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km773 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel447 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.8La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Dec | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 773 km | 153 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 15.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
16K. Arriaga
12Unai Vencedor
10Pablo Martínez
24Carlos Álvarez
17Víctor García
9Iván Romero
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
6Elustondo
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
28Pablo Marín
24L. Sučić
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Real Sociedad-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
Real Sociedad · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Girona | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Elche | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 8 of 39 · 0.62 per game | 12 of 39 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Levante wins0 draws2 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 6 May 2022Levante2–1Real Sociedad
- 28 Aug 2021Real Sociedad1–0Levante
- 7 Mar 2021Real Sociedad1–0Levante
- 19 Dec 2020Levante2–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.87 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 2.75 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 56% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 75% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 19% | |
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| Levante | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.54 | 6.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.69 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 10.07 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 4.63 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Levante | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.10 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.70 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.68league 4.08
Red cards0.32league 0.28
Cards 5+65%league 45%
Fouls26.2league 24.6
Penalties0.41league 0.31
Home wins50%league 47%
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
Real Sociedad3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D20 Apr 25A · Villarreal2–21
- L13 May 24A · Barcelona0–23
- D25 Aug 23A · Las Palmas0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante15 games · scored 16 · conceded 28
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
7
76-90
Real Sociedad16 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
8
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
