Levante vs Sevilla – 23 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 33 Thu, Apr 23 · 18:00 Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

Levante 19th · 29 pts · 31 played DDWLW

2–0Full time

Sevilla 17th · 34 pts · 31 played DLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Levante were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Levante. Levante had 9.9 days of rest, Sevilla 11.9 and had to travel 540 km.

Away travel540 kmRest days9.9 · 11.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Levante43%

Draw29%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.04

Levante44%

Draw27%

Sevilla29%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.19

Levante43%

Draw29%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.03

Levante37%

Draw29%

Sevilla34%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.16

Levante45%

Draw27%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.13

Over 2.5 43% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Valencia)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 57

Team strength

Levante

Sevilla

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

55 AttackIn forecast 48

41 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Levante

Sevilla

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.26

1.61 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.65

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

65% Scored inContext 77%

19% Clean sheetsContext 16%

11.35 ShotsContext 10.94

3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63

30% On target shareContext 32%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

62% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.04 OffsidesContext 3.16

15.87 Shots allowedContext 10.39

5.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

4.23 BlocksContext 3.40

3.76 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.07

70% Save rateContext 66%

42% PossessionIn forecast 52%

345 PassesContext 405

272 Accurate passesContext 330

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.48 FoulsContext 14.26

12.55 Fouls sufferedContext 12.32

2.19 Yellow cardsContext 2.68

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 0.75

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.35

60% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.60 ShotsContext 10.10

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

29% On target shareContext 26%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

56% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 3.00

14.90 Shots allowedContext 10.00

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.80 BlocksContext 3.11

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

67% Save rateContext 53%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

344 PassesContext 381

274 Accurate passesContext 307

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.50 FoulsContext 13.10

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levante

Rest9.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla

Rest11.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel540 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Levante	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Apr	11.9La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	540 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levante Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13M. Ryan(G)

23Manu Sánchez 2M. Moreno 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

14U. Raghouber

9Iván Romero 10Pablo Martínez 8Jon Ander Olasagasti 26Kareem Tunde

19Carlos Espí

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Sevilla Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

4Kike Salas 6N. Gudelj 32A. López Gallo

36Oso 28Manu Bueno 18L. Agoumé 16Juanlu Sánchez

11R. Vargas 7Isaac Romero

9A. Adams

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Levante Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Levante+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Sevilla+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Levante · Home 1.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.19
Conceded: 1.63

Sevilla · Away 1.00points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-8
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.87

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Levante	Sevilla
Getafe	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H
Real Sociedad	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Oviedo	W 4–2 HW 2–0 A	L 0–1 AW 4–0 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 AL 0–3 H	D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
Girona	D 1–1 HW 4–0 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
Alaves	W 2–0 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Barcelona	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	L 2–5 AW 4–1 H
Villarreal	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Valencia	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Athletic Club	L 2–4 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 HL 2–3 A
Atletico Madrid	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A	W 2–1 HL 0–3 A
Elche	W 3–2 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
Real Madrid	L 0–2 AL 1–4 H	L 0–2 A
Espanyol	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 A
Osasuna	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Celta Vigo	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	L 1–4 AL 1–3 H
Real Betis	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 AL 0–2 H
Points	26 of 90 · 0.87 per game	34 of 90 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Levante wins0 draws4 Sevilla wins

Goals per game1.60 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

4 Jan 2026Sevilla0–3Levante
21 Apr 2022Levante2–3Sevilla
24 Oct 2021Sevilla5–3Levante
21 Apr 2021Levante0–1Sevilla
1 Oct 2020Sevilla1–0Levante

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Levante	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.26
Conceded per game	1.61	1.65
Match goals	2.74	2.90	2.40
Over 1.5	87%	84%
Over 2.5	42%	58%	43%
Over 3.5	26%	29%
Both teams scored	48%	61%	49%
Clean sheets	19%	16%
Failed to score	35%	23%
Games	31	31

	Levante	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.60	1.80
Match goals	2.70	2.90	2.40
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	40%	43%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Levante	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	4.18	5.07
Corners conceded	5.75	4.53
Match total	9.93	9.60	9.60
Over 8.5	54% 15/28	57% 17/30
Over 9.5	43% 12/28	57% 17/30
Over 10.5	36% 10/28	40% 12/30
Cards
Cards	2.32	2.84
Opponent cards	2.52	2.23
Match total	4.84	5.07	4.54
Over 3.5	74% 23/31	68% 21/31
Over 4.5	58% 18/31	58% 18/31

	Levante	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.89
Corners conceded	4.80	4.00
Match total	9.60	8.89	9.60
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.50
Opponent cards	3.30	2.20
Match total	5.80	4.70	4.54
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.32league 4.27

Red cards0.32league 0.28

Cards 5+49%league 48%

Fouls24.7league 24.5

Penalties0.28league 0.37

Home wins51%league 49%

Levante

No previous matches with this referee.

Sevilla4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

L12 Jan 26H · Celta Vigo0–13
D28 Apr 24A · Real Betis1–15
L4 Jan 24H · Athletic Club0–23
L11 Aug 23H · Valencia1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.