Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Valencia. Levante had 7.1 days of rest, Valencia 6.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Levante36%
Draw29%
Valencia36%
Levante40%
Draw27%
Valencia33%
Levante36%
Draw29%
Valencia35%
Levante29%
Draw28%
Valencia43%
Levante37%
Draw27%
Valencia36%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 37
Team strength
Levante
Valencia
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
55
AttackIn forecast
39
41
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteValencia
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
68%
Scored inContext
74%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
10.09
ShotsContext
11.00
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.05
32%
On target shareContext
27%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.23
64%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.88
16.50
Shots allowedContext
12.04
5.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
4.50
BlocksContext
3.19
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
71%
Save rateContext
66%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
348
PassesContext
406
272
Accurate passesContext
332
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.36
FoulsContext
11.91
11.95
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
50%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.20
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
29%
On target shareContext
23%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
56%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.40
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.40
BlocksContext
2.67
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
69%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
377
PassesContext
411
298
Accurate passesContext
334
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.60
FoulsContext
11.90
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Valencia
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 944 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
4Adrián de la Fuente
29Nacho Pérez
10Pablo Martínez
16K. Arriaga
18Iker Losada
24Carlos Álvarez
26Kareem Tunde
9Iván Romero
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
24E. Cömert
5César Tárrega
4Unai Núñez
17L. Ramazani
18Pepelu
23F. Ugrinic
11Luis Rioja
9Hugo Duro
15L. Beltrán
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Valencia+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-5
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 2.00
Valencia · Away
0.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-7
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 2.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Girona | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 18 of 63 · 0.86 per game | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Levante wins1 draws3 Valencia wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 21 Nov 2025Valencia1–0Levante
- 30 Apr 2022Valencia1–1Levante
- 20 Dec 2021Levante3–4Valencia
- 12 Mar 2021Levante1–0Valencia
- 13 Sep 2020Valencia4–2Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 2.61 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 57% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 26% | |
| Games | 22 | 23 |
| Levante | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.79 | 5.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.16 | 5.35 | |
| Match total | 9.95 | 10.50 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 4.17 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Levante | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.38 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.51 | 10.70 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 4.15
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+49%league 45%
Fouls23.9league 24.6
Penalties0.24league 0.37
Home wins38%league 47%
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Oct 25A · Mallorca1–12
Valencia5 with this referee
Record1-4-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D10 Jan 26H · Elche1–12
- W20 Sep 25H · Athletic Club2–01
- D26 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–20
- D30 Mar 24H · Mallorca0–00
- D16 Dec 23H · Barcelona1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante22 games · scored 26 · conceded 38
3
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
4
7
46-60
5
5
61-75
7
10
76-90
Valencia23 games · scored 23 · conceded 37
3
1
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
31-45
5
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
8
11
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
