Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League
Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 17:45
Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Lille had 3.9 days of rest, Dinamo Zagreb 21 and had to travel 1,087 km.
Away travel1,087 kmRest days3.9 · 21Matches / 14d1 · 0
Lille48%
Draw25%
Dinamo Zagreb27%
Lille47%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb27%
Lille48%
Draw25%
Dinamo Zagreb27%
Lille40%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb34%
Lille47%
Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb27%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Beaton
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 64
Team strength
Lille
Dinamo Zagreb
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
42
AttackIn forecast
33
60
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleDinamo Zagreb
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
75%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.25
ShotsContext
11.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
39%
On target shareContext
37%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
70%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.50
Shots allowedContext
7.75
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
1.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
63%
Save rateContext
58%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
511
PassesContext
544
427
Accurate passesContext
475
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.25
FoulsContext
8.00
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.90
ShotsContext
11.00
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
39%
On target shareContext
32%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
69%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
2.88
BlocksContext
2.90
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
64%
Save rateContext
60%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
502
PassesContext
423
427
Accurate passesContext
355
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.30
FoulsContext
9.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,087 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Dinamo Zagreb |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,087 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
21B. André
6N. Bentaleb
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
29H. Igamane
Dinamo Zagreb
Confirmed XI
44I. Filipović(G)
22M. Vinlöf
26S. McKenna
36Sergi Domínguez
35N. Mikić
8M. Zajc
27J. Mišić
11A. Hoxha
77D. Ljubičić
21M. Lisica
71M. Bakrar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Dinamo Zagreb
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Dinamo Zagreb+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Dinamo Zagreb · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Lille | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 75% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 75% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 11.75 | 9.00 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.50 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Lille | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.20 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.00 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.90 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Beaton 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 4.04
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+53%league 43%
Fouls22.6league 24.8
Penalties0.36league 0.39
Home wins55%league 49%
LilleNo previous matches with this referee.
Dinamo Zagreb1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Nov 23A · FC Astana2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille4 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb4 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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