Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were clear favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 14). Lille had 4.8 days of rest, Estac Troyes 7 and had to travel 266 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel266 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lille75%
Draw16%
Estac Troyes9%
Lille75%
Draw16%
Estac Troyes9%
Lille75%
Draw16%
Estac Troyes9%
Lille69%
Draw19%
Estac Troyes13%
Lille76%
Draw15%
Estac Troyes9%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
19°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.1 mm
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 91%
Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 58
Team strength
Lille
Estac Troyes
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
42
AttackIn forecast
12
60
DefenceIn forecast
19
66
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstac Troyes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleEstac Troyes
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
100%
Scored inContext
67%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.00
ShotsContext
15.33
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
60%
On target shareContext
20%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.67
63%
Box shareContext
79%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
20.67
Shots allowedContext
14.67
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
4.00
BlocksContext
3.33
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
81%
Save rateContext
58%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
381
PassesContext
385
321
Accurate passesContext
308
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.00
FoulsContext
8.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.80
ShotsContext
9.60
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
47%
On target shareContext
32%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
67%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.10
11.90
Shots allowedContext
20.20
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.90
3.38
BlocksContext
4.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.60
74%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
471
PassesContext
368
407
Accurate passesContext
298
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.00
FoulsContext
8.10
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
WDWL
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,581 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 66 · 7 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Estac Troyes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 266 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,581 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
6N. Bentaleb
17N. Mukau
19B. Önal
10H. Haraldsson
7D. Bakwa
18A. Ueda
Estac Troyes
Confirmed XI
33P. Beach(G)
3A. Ouzenadji
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
22H. Picard
17A. Mille
7K. Diawara
9J. Le Douaron
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estac Troyes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estac Troyes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Estac Troyes · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Lille wins1 draws1 Estac Troyes wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 3 Jun 2023Estac Troyes1–1Lille
- 15 Jan 2023Lille5–1Estac Troyes
- 1 May 2022Estac Troyes3–0Lille
- 4 Dec 2021Lille2–1Estac Troyes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Estac Troyes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Lille | Estac Troyes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.67 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 67% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 67% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Estac Troyes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.50 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 1.67 | 2.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Lille | Estac Troyes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 8.22 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 12.00 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 2.10 | 2.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.66league 2.85
Red cards0.34league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 15%
Fouls25.8league 23.0
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins53%league 27%
Lille2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W30 Aug 25A · Lorient7–13
- W16 Feb 25A · Rennes2–01
Estac Troyes4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- D18 Mar 22A · Saint Etienne1–12
- L23 Jan 22A · Angers1–23
- L12 Dec 21H · Bordeaux1–23
- L15 Aug 21A · Clermont Foot0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Estac Troyes3 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
