Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lille75.0%fair odds 1.33
Draw16.3%fair odds 6.13
Estac Troyes8.6%fair odds 11.57
Expected goals2.46 – 0.73total 3.19
Likeliest score2–012.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Estac Troyes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · Estac Troyes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns Estac Troyes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.4%8.04
- 3–010.2%9.78
- 1–09.7%10.30
- 2–19.1%11.00
- 1–17.8%12.87
- 3–17.5%13.40
- 4–06.3%15.88
- 4–14.6%21.75
- 0–04.5%22.27
- 2–23.3%30.13
Winning margin
31.3%
Lille by 3+
fair 3.20
21.8%
Lille by 2
fair 4.59
22.0%
Lille by 1
fair 4.55
16.3%
Draw
fair 6.13
6.2%
Estac Troyes by 1
fair 16.03
1.9%
Estac Troyes by 2
fair 52.18
0.5%
Estac Troyes by 3+
fair 204.23
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Lille goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
Estac Troyes goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 75.0% | 75.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 16.3% | 16.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Estac Troyes win | 8.6% | 8.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 63.8% | -1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.8% | 49.4% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 2.46 | 2.52 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Estac Troyes | 0.73 | 0.76 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win75.0%1.33
- Draw16.3%6.13
- Estac Troyes win8.6%11.57
- Double chance Lille or draw91.4%1.09
- Double chance Lille or Estac Troyes83.7%1.20
- Double chance Estac Troyes or draw25.0%4.01
- Draw no bet Lille89.7%1.12
- Draw no bet Estac Troyes10.3%9.68
Goals
- Over 0.595.5%1.05
- Over 1.583.2%1.20
- Over 2.561.9%1.62
- Over 3.539.6%2.52
- Over 4.521.8%4.58
- Under 1.516.8%5.95
- Under 2.538.1%2.62
- Under 3.560.4%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes47.8%2.09
- No52.2%1.92
- Yes and over 2.540.0%2.50
- Lille win and yes31.4%3.19
- Draw and yes11.8%8.45
- Estac Troyes win and yes4.6%21.62
Team goals
- Lille over 0.591.5%1.09
- Lille over 1.570.5%1.42
- Lille over 2.544.7%2.24
- Estac Troyes over 0.551.8%1.93
- Estac Troyes over 1.516.6%6.01
- Estac Troyes over 2.53.8%26.35
- Lille clean sheet48.2%2.08
- Estac Troyes clean sheet8.5%11.75
- Lille win to nil43.7%2.29
- Estac Troyes win to nil4.0%24.88
Handicap
- Lille −1.553.1%1.88
- Lille −2.531.3%3.20
- Estac Troyes +1.546.9%2.13
- Estac Troyes +2.568.7%1.45
- Estac Troyes −1.52.4%41.56
- Lille +1.597.6%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored33
Favourite won45.5%
Avg chance given to result35.2%
1X2 Brier0.692
Over 2.5 called right57.6%
BTTS called right54.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 45.8% | 58.8% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 55.7% | 20.0% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 70.3% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 33 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.7287 | 0.7147 |
| Avg chance given to result | 33.5% | 33.6% |
| Favourite won | 41.7% | 37.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 33 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.