Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were clear favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for LE Havre. LE Havre were without E. Jelert. Lille had 20 days of rest, LE Havre 20.9 and had to travel 246 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel246 kmRest days20 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lille68%
Draw19%
LE Havre14%
Lille67%
Draw20%
LE Havre14%
Lille67%
Draw19%
LE Havre14%
Lille60%
Draw21%
LE Havre18%
Lille67%
Draw19%
LE Havre14%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lille)
15°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 60%
RefereeBastein Dechepy
Team strength
Lille
LE Havre
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
42
AttackIn forecast
20
60
DefenceIn forecast
22
47
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleLE Havre
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.63
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.60
ShotsContext
15.60
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
51%
On target shareContext
32%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
69%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
5%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.80
16.00
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.25
BlocksContext
4.00
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
81%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
461
PassesContext
398
397
Accurate passesContext
332
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.60
FoulsContext
14.80
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.40
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
45%
On target shareContext
36%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
70%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.30
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.14
BlocksContext
3.70
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
73%
Save rateContext
79%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
469
PassesContext
374
404
Accurate passesContext
308
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.10
FoulsContext
15.00
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
DWLWL
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel8 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
LE Havre
LDLDL
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel246 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 2 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 8 km | 246 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
23T. Nianzou
22Tiago Santos
14M. Kjærgaard
6N. Bentaleb
28G. Perrin
17N. Mukau
7D. Bakwa
9O. Giroud
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
5A. Touba
15A. Seko
20D. Ouziad
7M. Richardson
26S. Ebonog
25M. Samatta
14R. Ndiaye
30S. Nakamura
9J. Maja
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Attack line −1.8% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT H. Igamane Rotation 7.15 Att −1.8%
LE Havre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −2.4% · Defence line −11.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF E. Jelert Starter 6.40 Def −7.4%
- DEF T. Pembélé Rotation 6.51 Def −1.7%
- DEF Lionel M'Pasi Rotation 7.62 Def −1.1%
- DEF Stephan Zagadou Rotation 6.73 Def −1.0%
- MID A. Touré Rotation 7.08 Att −0.8% Def −0.4%
- ATT F. Mambimbi Rotation 6.46 Att −1.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- LE Havre-0.5 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
LE Havre · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lille | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | W 1–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Lille wins1 draws1 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.83 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 3 May 2026Lille1–1LE Havre
- 30 Nov 2025LE Havre0–1Lille
- 8 Feb 2025Lille1–2LE Havre
- 28 Sep 2024LE Havre0–3Lille
- 17 Feb 2024Lille3–0LE Havre
- 1 Oct 2023LE Havre0–2Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.20 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Lille | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.80 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.20 | 3.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Lille | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.45 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lille5 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
LE Havre5 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
