Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were clear favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 14). Lille had 2.8 days of rest, Metz 6.9 and had to travel 271 km.
Away travel271 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lille78%
Draw14%
Metz7%
Lille77%
Draw15%
Metz8%
Lille78%
Draw15%
Metz7%
Lille72%
Draw18%
Metz10%
Lille78%
Draw15%
Metz7%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Millot
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 78
Team strength
Lille
Metz
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
42
AttackIn forecast
11
60
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleMetz
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.63
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.07
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
75%
Scored inContext
38%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
15.88
ShotsContext
6.88
4.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
29%
On target shareContext
27%
11.63
Shots in the boxContext
5.83
74%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.29
10.25
Shots allowedContext
14.63
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
2.50
BlocksContext
3.00
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
64%
Save rateContext
64%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
467
PassesContext
466
396
Accurate passesContext
407
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.13
FoulsContext
10.88
13.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.13
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.07
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
40%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.30
ShotsContext
7.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.38
31%
On target shareContext
25%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.13
74%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.56
OffsidesContext
1.25
10.30
Shots allowedContext
14.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
2.33
BlocksContext
3.11
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
67%
Save rateContext
64%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
483
PassesContext
422
407
Accurate passesContext
360
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.00
FoulsContext
10.30
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,023 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Metz
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel271 km1,421 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 271 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,023 km | 1,421 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
18C. Mbemba
12T. Meunier
32A. Bouaddi
21B. André
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
10H. Haraldsson
27Félix Correia
29H. Igamane
Metz
Confirmed XI
61P. Sy(G)
7G. Tsitaishvili
15T. Yegbe
5J. Gbamin
39K. Kouao
20J. Deminguet
21B. Stambouli
12Alpha Touré
9G. Abuashvili
30M. Diallo
14C. Sabaly
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Metz-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Metz · Away
0.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | L 2–5 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Lille wins2 draws0 Metz wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 28 Apr 2024Metz1–2Lille
- 3 Dec 2023Lille2–0Metz
- 18 Feb 2022Lille0–0Metz
- 8 Aug 2021Metz3–3Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.13 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Lille | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.13 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 63% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.13 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 8.88 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.13 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 2.38 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Lille | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.40 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.10 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 2.60 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Millot France · 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 3.79
Red cards0.28league 0.30
Cards 5+36%league 37%
Fouls25.4league 24.4
Penalties0.24league 0.54
Home wins41%league 53%
Lille8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L15 Mar 25A · Nantes0–13
- D1 Dec 24A · Montpellier2–26
- W21 Apr 24H · Strasbourg1–02
- D10 Mar 24H · Rennes2–25
- D8 Oct 23A · Lens1–14
Metz5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D14 Sep 25H · Angers1–10
- L7 Apr 24A · Stade Brestois 293–41
- D5 Nov 23A · Lyon1–11
- D21 Nov 21H · Bordeaux3–33
- L17 Oct 21H · Rennes0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille8 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
10
76-90
Metz8 games · scored 5 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
9
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
12
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 6 · conceded 24
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
11
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
