Lille vs Monaco – 24 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 19:45 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

1–0Full time

Monaco 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Lille had 7.2 days of rest, Monaco 8.1 and had to travel 829 km.

Away travel829 kmRest days7.2 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lille45%

Draw26%

Monaco29%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.22

Lille45%

Draw27%

Monaco29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Lille45%

Draw26%

Monaco29%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.22

Lille37%

Draw27%

Monaco36%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.37

Lille45%

Draw27%

Monaco29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 87

Team strength

Lille

Monaco

61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

42 AttackIn forecast 45

60 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Monaco

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.66

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.30 ShotsContext 13.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

37% On target shareContext 41%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

70% Box shareContext 71%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.43

9.00 Shots allowedContext 8.80

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.57 BlocksContext 2.57

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

66% Save rateContext 75%

57% PossessionIn forecast 55%

530 PassesContext 488

459 Accurate passesContext 410

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.01 Team ratingContext 7.06

11.40 FoulsContext 12.20

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,210 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Monaco

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel829 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Monaco
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug	8.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	829 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,210 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 4Alexsandro Ribeiro 3N. Ngoy 12T. Meunier

21B. André 32A. Bouaddi

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau

9O. Giroud

Monaco Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1L. Hrádecký(G)

12Caio Henrique 13C. Mawissa 3E. Dier 4J. Teze

10A. Golovin 6D. Zakaria 15M. Camara

18T. Minamino 9F. Balogun 11M. Akliouche

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Absences are shown before kick-off

Monaco Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Monaco+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home No home games yet this season.

Monaco · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Lille wins3 draws2 Monaco wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.13 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets38% · 38%

22 Feb 2025Lille2–1Monaco
18 Oct 2024Monaco0–0Lille
24 Apr 2024Monaco1–0Lille
29 Oct 2023Lille2–0Monaco
14 May 2023Monaco0–0Lille
23 Oct 2022Lille4–3Monaco

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Monaco	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	6.00	4.00	2.79
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lille	Monaco	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	6.00	4.00	2.79
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Monaco	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.00
Corners conceded	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	7.00	9.47
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	3.00	1.00	3.73
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Lille	Monaco	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.11
Corners conceded	3.40	3.67
Match total	8.10	8.78	9.47
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	2.00
Match total	3.70	3.40	3.73
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 3.24

Red cards0.26league 0.29

Cards 5+41%league 35%

Fouls25.1league 23.6

Penalties0.38league 0.29

Home wins44%league 65%

Lille11 with this referee

Record3-4-4 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.1 Pens for · against3 · 4 Reds3

W17 May 25H · Reims2–10
L25 Jan 25A · Strasbourg1–22
D14 Dec 24A · Marseille1–13
D19 May 24H · Nice2–24
W29 Mar 24H · Lens2–13

Monaco8 with this referee

Record3-3-2 Cards · opp.2.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds5

W15 Mar 25A · Angers2–02
D1 Sep 24H · Lens1–11
D27 Jan 24A · Marseille2–24
W2 Sep 23H · Lens3–04
W2 Apr 23H · Strasbourg4–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.