Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lille45.0%fair odds 2.22
Draw26.1%fair odds 3.83
Monaco28.9%fair odds 3.46
Expected goals1.57 – 1.22total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Monaco
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · Monaco → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns Monaco goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.08
- 2–19.2%10.82
- 1–09.0%11.07
- 2–07.6%13.17
- 1–27.2%13.97
- 0–16.9%14.59
- 0–06.8%14.79
- 2–25.6%17.76
- 3–14.8%20.63
- 0–24.6%21.97
Winning margin
9.4%
Lille by 3+
fair 10.58
13.8%
Lille by 2
fair 7.27
21.7%
Lille by 1
fair 4.60
26.1%
Draw
fair 3.83
16.7%
Monaco by 1
fair 5.99
8.3%
Monaco by 2
fair 12.12
4.0%
Monaco by 3+
fair 25.20
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Lille goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
8%4+
Monaco goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 45.0% | 44.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 26.1% | 26.7% | -0.6 pp |
| Monaco win | 28.9% | 28.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 50.5% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 54.7% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.57 | 1.52 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Monaco | 1.22 | 1.18 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win45.0%2.22
- Draw26.1%3.83
- Monaco win28.9%3.46
- Double chance Lille or draw71.1%1.41
- Double chance Lille or Monaco73.9%1.35
- Double chance Monaco or draw55.0%1.82
- Draw no bet Lille60.9%1.64
- Draw no bet Monaco39.1%2.55
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.4%1.29
- Over 2.552.8%1.89
- Over 3.530.6%3.27
- Over 4.515.1%6.63
- Under 1.522.6%4.42
- Under 2.547.2%2.12
- Under 3.569.4%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.30
- Yes and over 2.544.0%2.27
- Lille win and yes22.1%4.52
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- Monaco win and yes14.9%6.70
Team goals
- Lille over 0.579.3%1.26
- Lille over 1.546.6%2.14
- Lille over 2.521.0%4.77
- Monaco over 0.570.4%1.42
- Monaco over 1.534.4%2.91
- Monaco over 2.512.4%8.04
- Lille clean sheet29.6%3.38
- Monaco clean sheet20.7%4.82
- Lille win to nil22.8%4.38
- Monaco win to nil14.0%7.15
Handicap
- Lille −1.523.2%4.31
- Lille −2.59.4%10.58
- Monaco +1.576.8%1.30
- Monaco +2.590.6%1.10
- Monaco −1.512.2%8.18
- Lille +1.587.8%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored17
Favourite won76.5%
Avg chance given to result52.0%
1X2 Brier0.405
Over 2.5 called right52.9%
BTTS called right35.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.4% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.5% | 62.5% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 54.6% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 69.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 75.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 90.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 17 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 17 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.