Lille vs Paris Saint Germain – 28 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Fri, Aug 28 · 19:45 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–2Full time

Paris Saint Germain 6th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were slight favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lille. Lille had 5.2 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 5 and had to travel 205 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel205 kmRest days5.2 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lille24%

Draw24%

Paris Saint Germain52%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.72

Lille22%

Draw23%

Paris Saint Germain55%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.77

Lille23%

Draw23%

Paris Saint Germain54%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.76

Lille18%

Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain60%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.93

Lille24%

Draw25%

Paris Saint Germain51%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.60

Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

19°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 80%

Referee · FranceEric Wattellier

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 97

Team strength

Lille

Paris Saint Germain

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

42 AttackIn forecast 91

60 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Paris Saint Germain

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

70% Scored inContext 100%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.40 ShotsContext 16.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

46% On target shareContext 33%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

71% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.38

8.40 Shots allowedContext 10.50

2.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.57 BlocksContext 3.13

1.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

73% Save rateContext 75%

55% PossessionIn forecast 62%

483 PassesContext 645

417 Accurate passesContext 577

87% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.96 Team ratingContext 7.08

9.40 FoulsContext 7.90

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille W

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km885 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 61 · 3 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W23 AugA · Angers2–01.9 xPts

Paris Saint Germain D

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel205 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 1 pts vs 1.1 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

D23 AugA · Rennes2–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Aug	5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	205 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	885 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 4Alexsandro Ribeiro 3N. Ngoy 22Tiago Santos

6N. Bentaleb 21B. André

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé

9O. Giroud

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

33W. Zaïre-Emery 51W. Pacho 5Marquinhos 2A. Hakimi

8Fabián Ruiz 4Beraldo 17Vitinha

14D. Doué 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.9 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Paris Saint Germain-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home No home games yet this season.

Paris Saint Germain · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

0 Lille wins2 draws8 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game1.10 – 3.30 Over 2.580% Both scored90% Clean sheets0% · 10%

16 Jan 2026Paris Saint Germain3–0Lille
5 Oct 2025Lille1–1Paris Saint Germain
1 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain4–1Lille
1 Sep 2024Lille1–3Paris Saint Germain
10 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Lille
17 Dec 2023Lille1–1Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	2.80
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	54%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lille	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	2.20
Conceded per game	0.60	0.90
Match goals	2.00	3.10	2.80
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	53%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	60%	50%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	—
Corners conceded	8.00	—
Match total	11.00	—	10.25
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	—
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	—
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.13
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Lille	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	6.56
Corners conceded	4.70	3.44
Match total	9.00	10.00	10.25
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.60
Opponent cards	2.20	1.10
Match total	4.30	2.70	3.13
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 97 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.11league 3.00

Red cards0.23league 0.22

Cards 5+23%league 11%

Fouls20.3league 23.1

Penalties0.37league 0.44

Home wins51%league 22%

Lille16 with this referee

Record6-4-6 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1 Pens for · against3 · 2 Reds1

L3 Jan 26H · Rennes0–22
L20 Sep 25A · Lens0–33
D4 May 25H · Marseille1–12
L5 Apr 25A · Lyon1–22
W1 Feb 25H · Saint Etienne4–11

Paris Saint Germain11 with this referee

Record11-0-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against5 · 3 Reds1

W3 Apr 26H · Toulouse3–10
W1 Feb 26A · Strasbourg2–11
W30 Aug 25A · Toulouse6–30
W23 Feb 25A · Lyon3–21
W3 Sep 23A · Lyon4–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.