Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lille23.2%fair odds 4.32
Draw25.0%fair odds 4.00
Paris Saint Germain51.8%fair odds 1.93
Expected goals1.08 – 1.72total 2.80
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Paris Saint Germain
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · Paris Saint Germain → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns Paris Saint Germain goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.42
- 0–19.8%10.15
- 1–29.7%10.29
- 0–29.0%11.11
- 0–06.7%15.01
- 2–16.1%16.41
- 1–05.9%16.81
- 1–35.6%17.91
- 2–25.2%19.05
- 0–35.2%19.35
Winning margin
2.6%
Lille by 3+
fair 38.44
6.3%
Lille by 2
fair 15.85
14.3%
Lille by 1
fair 7.02
25.0%
Draw
fair 4.00
23.1%
Paris Saint Germain by 1
fair 4.33
16.1%
Paris Saint Germain by 2
fair 6.23
12.7%
Paris Saint Germain by 3+
fair 7.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Lille goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Paris Saint Germain goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 23.2% | 23.7% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.2% | -1.2 pp |
| Paris Saint Germain win | 51.8% | 50.1% | +1.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 49.0% | +4.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.8% | 52.0% | +2.9 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.08 | 1.03 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Paris Saint Germain | 1.72 | 1.60 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win23.2%4.32
- Draw25.0%4.00
- Paris Saint Germain win51.8%1.93
- Double chance Lille or draw48.2%2.08
- Double chance Lille or Paris Saint Germain75.0%1.33
- Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw76.8%1.30
- Draw no bet Lille30.9%3.24
- Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain69.1%1.45
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.5%1.29
- Over 2.553.1%1.88
- Over 3.530.9%3.24
- Over 4.515.3%6.54
- Under 1.522.5%4.45
- Under 2.546.9%2.13
- Under 3.569.1%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes54.8%1.82
- No45.2%2.21
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- Lille win and yes12.0%8.35
- Draw and yes18.3%5.45
- Paris Saint Germain win and yes24.5%4.08
Team goals
- Lille over 0.566.0%1.51
- Lille over 1.529.4%3.41
- Lille over 2.59.6%10.46
- Paris Saint Germain over 0.582.1%1.22
- Paris Saint Germain over 1.551.4%1.95
- Paris Saint Germain over 2.524.9%4.02
- Lille clean sheet17.9%5.60
- Paris Saint Germain clean sheet34.0%2.94
- Lille win to nil11.2%8.93
- Paris Saint Germain win to nil27.3%3.66
Handicap
- Lille −1.58.9%11.22
- Lille −2.52.6%38.44
- Paris Saint Germain +1.591.1%1.10
- Paris Saint Germain +2.597.4%1.03
- Paris Saint Germain −1.528.7%3.48
- Lille +1.571.3%1.40
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored9
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result39.6%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right33.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.6% | 60.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 57.5% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 9 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✗Rennes 2–2 Paris Saint Germain20·21·59
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- ✗Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 2945·25·30
- ✗Estac Troyes 0–0 Paris FC29·25·46
- ✓Toulouse 0–2 Lyon32·26·42
- ✗Nice 0–0 Lorient39·27·35
- ✓Lens 5–2 Auxerre66·20·15
- ✓Marseille 4–0 Strasbourg50·23·27
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 9 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.