Lille vs Real Betis – 8 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Tue, Sep 8 · 20:00 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille

2–3Full time

Real Betis

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were slight favourites.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lille. Lille had 5 days of rest, Real Betis 4 and had to travel 1,640 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,640 kmRest days5 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3

Lille46%

Draw24%

Real Betis30%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.31

Lille39%

Draw26%

Real Betis35%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Lille45%

Draw24%

Real Betis31%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.33

Lille39%

Draw24%

Real Betis37%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.47

Lille47%

Draw24%

Real Betis30%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.30

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

15°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 20 km/h
Humidity 90%

RefereeGeorgi Kabakov

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 32

Team strength

Lille

Real Betis

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 72

42 AttackIn forecast 79

60 DefenceIn forecast 59

75 Form indexContext 83

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Real Betis

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

0.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

80% Scored inContext 100%

70% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.50 ShotsContext 14.50

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

49% On target shareContext 36%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

69% Box shareContext 52%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 14.00

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

80% Save rateContext 75%

53% PossessionIn forecast 50%

472 PassesContext 485

407 Accurate passesContext 422

86% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.98

9.80 FoulsContext 10.00

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille WDW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,581 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 75 · 7 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected

W3 SepA · Toulouse1–01.6 xPts
D28 AugH · Paris Saint Germain2–21.0 xPts
W23 AugA · Angers2–01.9 xPts

Real Betis WWLW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,640 km2,159 km in 14d

Schedule load40%High

Form 83 · 9 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W4 SepH · Real Madrid1–00.8 xPts
L29 AugA · Levante2–51.5 xPts
W25 AugA · Valencia1–01.3 xPts
W21 AugH · Real Sociedad1–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	High · 40
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 3 Sep	4La Liga 2026-2027, 4 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,640 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,581 km	2,159 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 4Alexsandro Ribeiro 3N. Ngoy 22Tiago Santos

6N. Bentaleb 21B. André

28G. Perrin 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé

18A. Ueda

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

23J. Firpo 4Natan 5Marc Bartra 2Héctor Bellerín

8Pablo Fornals 6F. Bernal

17Rodrigo Riquelme 22Isco 7Antony

19T. Parrott

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+1.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Real Betis-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home No home games yet this season.

Real Betis · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.00
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	58%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Lille	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.60
Conceded per game	0.50	1.30
Match goals	2.00	2.90	3.00
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	60%
Clean sheets	70%	40%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Lille	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.00
Corners conceded	4.78	5.60
Match total	8.78	10.60	9.50
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.60
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	4.10	3.70	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Georgi Kabakov 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.59league 4.50

Red cards0.22league 0.00

Cards 5+47%league 50%

Fouls20.7league 26.5

Penalties0.19league 0.50

Home wins38%league 50%

Lille1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W11 Dec 24H · Sturm Graz3–21

Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.