Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 45). Absences weigh more on Lille. Lille had 20.2 days of rest, Rennes 21.2 and had to travel 448 km.
Away travel448 kmRest days20.2 · 21.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Lille52%
Draw24%
Rennes23%
Lille53%
Draw25%
Rennes22%
Lille54%
Draw24%
Rennes21%
Lille45%
Draw26%
Rennes29%
Lille52%
Draw25%
Rennes23%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 88
Team strength
Lille
Rennes
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
42
AttackIn forecast
63
60
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleRennes
2.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
75%
Scored inContext
81%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.94
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.94
Shots in the boxContext
7.73
70%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.62
OffsidesContext
2.13
9.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.60
BlocksContext
4.53
2.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
69%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
480
PassesContext
450
408
Accurate passesContext
383
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.38
FoulsContext
11.00
13.06
Fouls sufferedContext
12.31
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
11.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
38%
On target shareContext
42%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
63%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.90
8.40
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.88
BlocksContext
4.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
73%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
509
PassesContext
432
438
Accurate passesContext
363
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.60
FoulsContext
10.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest21.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel448 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 21.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 448 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
24C. Verdonk
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
6N. Bentaleb
21B. André
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
10H. Haraldsson
14M. Broholm
9O. Giroud
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
36A. Seidu
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
26Q. Merlin
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
39M. Meïté
7B. Embolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rennes+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Rennes · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-2
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 4–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Paris FC | W 4–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nice | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Metz | W 6–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 0–5 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Lorient | W 7–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 3–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 32 of 48 · 2.00 per game | 27 of 48 · 1.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Lille wins4 draws0 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.88 – 1.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 16 Feb 2025Rennes0–2Lille
- 24 Nov 2024Lille1–0Rennes
- 10 Mar 2024Lille2–2Rennes
- 16 Sep 2023Rennes2–2Lille
- 4 Feb 2023Rennes1–3Lille
- 6 Nov 2022Lille1–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.06 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.31 | 3.19 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 69% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 19% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Lille | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.06 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.19 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 9.88 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 10/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 10/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 9/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 4.31 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 10/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Lille | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.40 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.18league 3.70
Red cards0.20league 0.34
Cards 5+23%league 36%
Fouls20.8league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.47
Home wins50%league 50%
Lille15 with this referee
Record6-4-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 2
- L20 Sep 25A · Lens0–33
- D4 May 25H · Marseille1–12
- L5 Apr 25A · Lyon1–22
- W1 Feb 25H · Saint Etienne4–11
- D18 Oct 24A · Monaco0–05
Rennes9 with this referee
Record4-2-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- D19 Oct 25H · Auxerre2–21
- L8 Dec 24A · Nantes0–12
- L25 Aug 24A · Strasbourg1–34
- W17 Mar 24H · Marseille2–01
- W20 Dec 23A · Clermont Foot3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille16 games · scored 33 · conceded 20
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
19
4
76-90
Rennes16 games · scored 27 · conceded 24
2
3
0-15
8
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
7
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
6
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
