Lille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Lille. Lille had 3 days of rest, Strasbourg 7.2 and had to travel 400 km.
Away travel400 kmRest days3 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lille47%
Draw26%
Strasbourg27%
Lille49%
Draw26%
Strasbourg25%
Lille49%
Draw25%
Strasbourg26%
Lille40%
Draw27%
Strasbourg34%
Lille47%
Draw26%
Strasbourg27%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 101
Team strength
Lille
Strasbourg
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
42
AttackIn forecast
40
60
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LilleStrasbourg
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.56
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
67%
Scored inContext
83%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
13.50
ShotsContext
10.56
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
35%
On target shareContext
39%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
70%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.71
10.17
Shots allowedContext
10.44
3.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.71
BlocksContext
3.31
2.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
66%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
471
PassesContext
519
400
Accurate passesContext
458
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.56
FoulsContext
11.44
13.11
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.28
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.40
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
40%
On target shareContext
41%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
62%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.40
9.70
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.67
BlocksContext
3.83
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
68%
Save rateContext
77%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
485
PassesContext
564
418
Accurate passesContext
504
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.30
FoulsContext
9.40
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.60
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,011 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Strasbourg
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel400 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 400 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,011 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
18C. Mbemba
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
32A. Bouaddi
17N. Mukau
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
6I. Doukouré
23M. Sarr
22G. Doué
29S. El Mourabet
32V. Barco
20B. Godo
19J. Enciso
7Diego Moreira
9J. Panichelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille-2.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Strasbourg+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 0.89
Strasbourg · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| Rennes | L 0–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Auxerre | W 4–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | W 4–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | W 5–0 H |
| Nice | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Metz | W 6–1 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lens | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | W 7–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 3–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 32 of 51 · 1.88 per game | 24 of 51 · 1.41 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Lille wins1 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.56 – 1.11
Over 2.556%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets44% · 11%
- 9 Nov 2025Strasbourg2–0Lille
- 25 Jan 2025Strasbourg2–1Lille
- 21 Sep 2024Lille3–3Strasbourg
- 21 Apr 2024Lille1–0Strasbourg
- 20 Dec 2023Strasbourg2–1Lille
- 12 Feb 2023Lille2–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 2.78 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Lille | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.72 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.94 | |
| Match total | 10.05 | 7.57 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 11/18 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 11/18 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 10/18 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.28 | 4.00 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 10/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 9/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Lille | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.00 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.10 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 101 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 3.60
Red cards0.27league 0.32
Cards 5+39%league 35%
Fouls24.7league 24.2
Penalties0.42league 0.43
Home wins44%league 49%
Lille13 with this referee
Record5-4-4
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against4 · 4
Reds4
- W30 Nov 25A · LE Havre1–04
- W24 Aug 25H · Monaco1–01
- W17 May 25H · Reims2–10
- L25 Jan 25A · Strasbourg1–22
- D14 Dec 24A · Marseille1–13
Strasbourg11 with this referee
Record6-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds3
- W14 Sep 25H · LE Havre1–02
- W25 Jan 25H · Lille2–14
- W29 Sep 24H · Marseille1–02
- W13 Apr 24H · Reims3–11
- L10 Feb 24A · Lens1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lille18 games · scored 33 · conceded 25
4
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
6
61-75
19
5
76-90
Strasbourg18 games · scored 28 · conceded 22
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
1
61-75
7
8
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
9
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
